There is a limit to what one can read into visual impressions made during the Mining Indaba in Cape Town earlier this month. For one thing, the paucity of Chinese mining, banking or government delegates at a large African mining

Read the rest of Rethinking investor risk in contemporary Zimbabwe – by Jolyon Ford at Oxford Analytica. »

The country risk score for Nigeria on Exclusive Analysis’s Foresight Country Risk Platform is now 4.3, which is in the Severe Risk Band. Only the country risk scores for Somalia and Sudan are higher in the sub-Saharan African region. President

Read the rest of Nigeria: The Risks of a Coup or Civil War – Exclusive Analysis Ltd »

Last Friday (4th Feb), the Ugandan government finally signed Production Sharing Agreements with UK based Tullow Oil. The deal has been in waiting for months as a bargain was struck on the one hand between the government and the oil companies,

Read the rest of Tullow begins Uganda farmdown after PSA signing with Uganda Government – By Angelo Izama »

If 2011 was a record year for elections in Africa, it was also the year frontier exploration for oil and gas came of age. Global crude oil prices have risen steadily since mid-2010, and with annual growth in Africa’s oil

Read the rest of Sub-Saharan Oil and Gas 2012: a Business Africa guide – By Rolake Akinkugbe, Ecobank Capital »

In mid-January while much of the country’s business community was still on or returning from summer holidays, Fitch Ratings revised its outlook for South Africa’s credit rating to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’. In doing so it seemed to be issuing a

Read the rest of Parastatals and the private sector: policy and partnerships in South Africa – By Jolyon Ford, Oxford Analytica »

Interest in West African oil acreage has steadily increased in recent years and governments along the Gulf of Guinea have sought to benefit. Sierra Leone is no exception in that regard. On 29 December 2011, authorities announced the launch of

Read the rest of Oil: Sierra Leone calling all Takers – By Nana Ampofo, Songhai Advisory »

On 26 February, presidential elections are due in which President Abdoulaye Wade will run for a third term, if the Constitutional Court rules Wade’s candidacy is legal, which is likely. Wade will be able to mobilise rural support, but he

Read the rest of Senegal: Closely contested presidential polls will heighten risks of protests, and contract risks if the opposition wins – By Exclusive Analysis »

Starting on 9th January, Nigeria is set to be hit by a wave of industrial action following the government’s controversial decision to end the subsidy on fuel. Oil, aviation and service industries will be among those affected as Nigerians react

Read the rest of Nigeria: scrapping fuel subsidy ‘ill-timed’ – By Hannah Waddilove, AKE Group »

For those in the risk analysis game, much of 2011 in South Africa was dominated by the ANC Youth League’s call for nationalisation of mines (a 60 percent state stake) and expropriation of farms. Indeed, the year ended with the

Read the rest of South Africa’s ‘nationalistion’ debate – By Jolyon Ford, Oxford Analytica »

Guinea stands to gain a large increase in donor assistance in the coming six months, which will reduce non-payment risks. An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission in November commended economic reforms, such as the removal of a fuel subsidy in

Read the rest of Guinea: donor assistance will reduce contract non-payment risks despite continued risks of sporadic violence – By Exclusive Analysis »