Exclusive Analysis

As frontrunner, President Jacob Zuma is likely to face Vice President Kgalema Motlanthe and Human Settlements Minister Tokyo Sexwale in his bid for re-election as president of the ruling African National Congress (ANC). Whoever wins the election to be held

Read the rest of South Africa Risk Outlook: nationalisation to become a political football – By Robert Besseling, Senior Africa Forecaster Exclusive Analysis »

On 23 May, acting president Dioncounda Traore travelled to France for treatment of injuries sustained during demonstrations by pro-junta civilians and political parties two days earlier. Following the 22 March coup, the political landscape in Bamako has become increasingly polarised

Read the rest of Mali Regulatory Risk: A likely junta-ECOWAS agreement »

On 2 May 2012, security forces used stun grenades and tear gas to disperse a sit-in numbering in the thousands in Mauritania’s capital Nouakchott. Issues such as unemployment, drought and corruption regarding the sale of land to senior military officers

Read the rest of Mauritania: Nouakchott Protests likely to increase – By Exclusive Analysis Ltd »

Head of Africa Forecasting at Exclusive Analysis, Natznet Tesfay, believes that the coup in Mali is likely to delay elections by 6-12 months, hike mining taxes and raise terrorism risks for northern uranium and oil operations. In a major incident

Read the rest of Breaking News: Mali Coup Likely to Hike Mining Taxes and Raise Terrorism Risks – By Exclusive Analysis »

Corruption of previous governments is likely to be targeted by new Sata regime, particularly in infrastructure, energy and retail sectors. In the next six-months, President Sata is unlikely to ease his anti-corruption drive, which was one of his key campaign

Read the rest of Zambia: Sata and co. pledge to fight corruption – By Exclusive Analysis »

The country risk score for Nigeria on Exclusive Analysis’s Foresight Country Risk Platform is now 4.3, which is in the Severe Risk Band. Only the country risk scores for Somalia and Sudan are higher in the sub-Saharan African region. President

Read the rest of Nigeria: The Risks of a Coup or Civil War – Exclusive Analysis Ltd »

On 26 February, presidential elections are due in which President Abdoulaye Wade will run for a third term, if the Constitutional Court rules Wade’s candidacy is legal, which is likely. Wade will be able to mobilise rural support, but he

Read the rest of Senegal: closely contested presidential polls heighten the risks of protests – By Exclusive Analysis »

Guinea stands to gain a large increase in donor assistance in the coming six months, which will reduce non-payment risks. An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission in November commended economic reforms, such as the removal of a fuel subsidy in

Read the rest of Guinea: donor assistance will reduce contract non-payment risks despite continued risks of sporadic violence – By Exclusive Analysis »

In December 2011 two new groups claimed responsibility for kidnaps in northwest Africa. On 7 December, the Mauritanian ANI news agency said it had received a video from a group called ‘al-Qaeda in Nigeria’, showing a British engineer kidnapped on

Read the rest of Northwest Africa kidnap claims by new groups suggest growing competition for ransoms – By Exclusive Analysis »

Industrial action has increased in multiple sectors in 2011, with industry experts estimating 30 million working days lost so far this year, up from 20 million in 2010. The cost of strike action in 2011 already totals some $200 million

Read the rest of South Africa 2012 Industrial Action Likely to Affect Mining Firms, Construction Companies and Major Seaports – By Robert Besseling, Exclusive Analysis Ltd. »