“Capsules” is an ad-hoc series of short notes focusing on three issues relating to Sudan: 1- Darfur, 2- South Sudan, 3- Nile Waters. 4- Sudan-North The notes shall focus on facts and on realistic analysis and possible scenarios. The notes are meant to be unbiased and representing only the views of Subsahara Centre-Ottawa. They are self-funded by Subsahara Centre. No comments or dialogue over the Capsules is expected. The outbreak of hostilities in Blue Nile, though limited and not exclusively through the main Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), may now change the landscape for both Blue Nile and South Kordofan. The operations by both the Popular Defence Force (PDF) and then SAF may be an arm-twister for General Agar and/or may be tactical to create leverage. If it were meant by the SPLMN to take the heat off General Hilo in South Kordofan that seems to have failed as fresh SAF and PDF forces were sent to Blue Nile. Who started the fighting may not be very important now. The Nubas in the SPLMN were worried that General Malik Agar might cave-in and “sell them out”. The South Kordofan insurgency made SAF/GOS weary of Gen Agar and consequently readied themselves for […]
Part II of Jens Pedersen’s paper for MSS: Making Sense of a Thorny Separation. Part I can be read here: The Political Economy in North Sudan and Internal Politics and Part II here – Internal Dynamics of the South In Abyei, various aspects of the implementation of the CPA, such as the separate referendum for the area, the border demarcation and security agreements made and eventually abandoned, have all but hampered the entire CPA implementation. The referendum in Abyei initially stalled and eventually never took place, mainly due to lack of political ability and will to address the thorny issue of voter eligibility. One reason is probably that it was a calculated decision based on the assumption, that an approval of the greater referendum in Southern Sudan would be enough to ensure some acceptance and hard needed credibility for the NCP government. However, in the period leading up to and following the referendum, the area of Abyei, including areas of Greater Bahr el Ghazal, witnessed increased levels of insecurity, through aerial bombardments and militia attacks. Several of these aerial bombardments, were later confirmed by the UN mission in Sudan (UNMIS). Still, the negotiations regarding the Abyei issue, in the same […]
South Kordofan and Nuba Mountains – Timely Humanitarian Interventionism or yet Another Passive Rwanda-Like Inaction?
By Ahmed Hassan I sat sipping my mint-flavored black tea hurriedly on one of these small teashops on the way from Kadougli to El-Obied. I could not stand the sound of the jet fighters patrolling the skies on their unholy missions. I just needed to leave the place before things got more complicated. In front of me, on that small plastic chair, sat an element of the so called “Abu Tira” forces, a synonym for the Central Reserve Forces of the government, drinking a black coffee and boasting: “….our commanders gave us crystal clear orders: take no hostages, we do not have jails or food for any POW, just shoot to kill any of these rebels you may find on your way…” I have never been an admirer of Dr. Nafie A. Nafie, but for the first time in my life I appreciated his courageous reaching and signing of the Partnership Agreement between the NCP and the SPLMN in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on June 28, 2011. An agreement that sets new grounds for a continued peace process and for ceasing of hostilities in South Kordofan to end the current nightmare of atrocities, and to enable the flow of relief to […]
In recent commentary, some in the advocacy community have suggested that the United States actively move to provide the new Republic of South Sudan with anti-aircraft weapons system technology, including “medium-range surface-to-air missile systems.” There is some irony in anti-conflict advocates finding common cause with arms manufacturers and vendors, those who would benefit most from the export of sophisticated arms systems. In the Enough Project’s endorsement of Congressman Don Payne’s proposal to provide such technology to South Sudan, David Sullivan says that this is “the less bad option.” John Bradshaw, Enough’s Executive Director, notes that such systems should be “closely monitored to ensure they are used for protection of civilian populations…this equipment and training should provide leverage to improve the human rights record of the southern security forces.” I don’t doubt the good intentions of the folks at Enough. But this is simply a bad idea. A Cold War era policy of deterrence belongs precisely there – in the annals of history. The last thing East Africa needs is more weaponry, high tech or otherwise. The United States should not contribute to an arms race between North and South Sudan – the two future states are well on their way to […]
Sudan Wed 15th June Question 3.30 pm Asked by Lord Chidgey To ask Her Majesty’s Government what is their response to the situation in Sudan. The Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Lord Howell of Guildford): My Lords, we are deeply concerned by the situation in Abyei and the current violence in Southern Kordofan. We call for an immediate cessation of violence and urge the parties to work through the African Union-facilitated negotiations to resolve their differences. Michael Ryder, the UK special envoy to Sudan, is in Addis Ababa today, supporting these talks. We are particularly concerned by the humanitarian impact and the lack of access for humanitarian agencies. We strongly urge the Sudanese armed forces from the north and the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army to allow humanitarian agencies immediate access to those who most need their help. Lord Chidgey: I am very grateful to my noble friend for that Answer. Does he agree that the situation unfolding in Southern Kordofan is creating a major threat to regional stability? Will he confirm recent reports that of the 60,000 people in Kadugli, 40,000 have fled from the heavy fighting, which has included bombing and strafing by the Sudanese army; and […]