By looking at the results of the last two democratic elections in Sudan, we can use them to predict the outcome of the forthcoming election next year. The circumstances of the previous four democratic elections and next year election are different as all the previous democratic elections came after the overthrow of dictators, but next year’s election will be contest involving a party which has been in power for twenty years and controls the economy and the government apparatus.

Let me look at the result of 1968 and 1986 elections:

1968 Election
Party — — — — No of Votes — — No Seats — — % Vote
1 Democratic Unionist — — 742,236 — — 101 — — 40.8
2 Umma Party Sidig Wing — — 384,986 — — 36 — — 21.2
3 Umma Party – Al Hadi Wing — — 329,652 — — 30 — — 18
4 Independent Candidates — — 70,047 — — 9 — — 3.8
5 SANU — — — 60,493 — — 15 — — 3.3
6 Islamic Charter Front — — 44,552 — — 3 — — 2.5
7 Umma Party — — 43,288 — — 6 — — 2.4
8 Southern Front — — 39,822 — — 10 — — 2.2
9 Socialist Front — — 21,814 — — 0 — — 1.2
10 Socialist — — — 19,695 — — 0 — — 1.1
11 Beja Congress — — 15,382 — — 3 — — 0.8
12 National Unionist — — 10,163 — — 0 — — 0.6
13 No Political Colour — — 8,264 — — 1 — — 0.5
14 Farmers’ Union — — 6,691 — — 0 — — 0.4
15 Working Class — — 5,204 — — 1 — — 0.3
16 Nuba Mountains Union — — 3,171 — — 2 — — 0.2
17 Nile Party — — — 2,704 — — 1 — — 0.15
18 Liberal Party — — 1,844 — — 0 — — 0.1
19 Islamic Party — — 1,772 — — 0 — — 0.097
20 Union of Western Sudan — — 1,695 — — 0 — — 0.093
21 Communist Party — — 1,652 — — 0 — — 0.091
22 South Sudan Democratic Party — — 1,535 — — 0 — — 0.08
23 Unity Party — — — 1,478 — — 0 — — 0.081
24 Workers Union — — 668 — — 0 — — 0.04
25 Peace Party — — 387 — — 0 — — 0.02
27 Democratic Socialist — — 220 — — 0 — — 0.01
28 Democratic Unionist-Sabah Al Sadig — 63 — — 0 — — 0.003
29 The Union of New Force — — 33 — — 0 — — 0.002

Total — — — — 1,819,511 — — 218 — — 100.0 — 85

In 1968 around 29 political parties and movements contested the election. That was the second democratic election in three years, after the October 1964 uprising, which brought down the regime of General Ibrahim Aboud. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) won 40.3% of the votes that translated into 101 seats in the Parliament. As no single party won the majority a coalition government between the DUP and Umma Party Al Hadi Wing was formed, It continued until 25 May 1969 when Nimairi Took power by coup d’état. The election went smoothly with no complaints of irregularity or fraud.

Let me now look at the 1986 election which took place after 16 years of the Nimairi dictatorship.

1986 Election

Party — — — — No of Votes — — No Seats — — % Vote
1 Umma Party National — — 1,531,216 — — 100 — — 38.6
2 Democratic Unionist — — 1,166,434 — — 63 — — 29.4
3 National Islamic Front — — 733,034 — — 28 — — 18.44
4 National Party — — 88,329 — — 8 — — 2.2
5 SABCO — — — 27,311 — — 7 — — 0.69
6 Political Union for South Sudan — — 23,188 — — 7 — — 0.58
7 Independent — — 95,532 — — 6 — — 2.4
8 Communist Party of Sudan — — 62,617 — — 2 — — 1.58
9 People’s Democratic Party — — 5,042 — — 1 — — 0.13
10 Sudan African Congress — — 4,416 — — 1 — — 0.11
11 Beja Congress — — 14,291 — — 1 — — 0.36
12 Rural Forces Solidarity — — 88,892 — — 0 — — 2.24
13 Ba’ath Party — — 35,502 — — 0 — — 0.89
14 National Unionist — — 33,344 — — 0 — — 0.84
15 People Progressive Party — — 30,917 — — 0 — — 0.78
16 Umma Party-Imam Wing — — 30,227 — — 0 — — 0.76

Total — — — — 3,970,292 — — 224 — — 100

(Note: This table doesn’t include the graduate (Kharjeen) constituencies)

This election generally went well apart from some fraudulent acts due to the weakness of 1986 Election Act which was deliberately set to allow that to happen. The main discrepancy was with regards to the graduates constituencies (28 seats), and the law that only allowed Sudanese in the Diaspora to vote for the graduates’ constituencies and not the geographic constituencies. The law also allowed Sudanese living in Diaspora to register to vote in any states and not to restrict them to the regions where they came from. That allowed The National Islamic Front to distribute their votes in a way which allowed them to win most of the graduates’ seats, even some in south Sudan.

There were some fraudulent practices in the geographic constituencies as some people registered their names in more than two consistencies and managed to vote in all those constituencies. Most of those malpractices were by the supporters of the National Islamic Front (NIF). That why we should be seriously worried about fraud in the forthcoming election as the same Islamists been in power for 20 years and they control all the national and regional governments.

After 16 years of the Nimairi regime, almost exactly the same parties came back to power. Will we see the same thing happen after 20 years of the NIF? There is big difference between Nimairi’s years in power and current Islamist government. The Nimairi regime was not an ideological regime; it took power with a socialist agenda and links with the communist party, but Nimairi broke his link with the communists after two years, and used to play the game of allying himself with different political group when it suited him. After the 1977 reconciliation agreement with the National Front led by Mr al Sadig al Mahdi he formed an alliance with the Islamists and that led to him to adopt an Islamic agenda by introducing Islamic banking in 1978 and Islamic Sharia laws in 1983. Then he suddenly broke his ties with the Islamists in February 1985 just two months before April 1985 uprising which removed him from power. The support that the Islamists had from the Nimairi government was one of the main reason why the National Islamic Front was well organised in 1985/86 and had a lot resources which it used in the 1986 election.

By contrast, the current regime in Sudan is an ideological regime, which came with an Islamist project, and followed the policy of empowerment (tamkin). The main objective of that policy was to enrich the regime’s supporter and to weaken other political parties. They got rid of thousands of civil servants who were not from their party and put their supporters in all the key areas. They managed to accumulate huge amounts of wealth and used that to weaken other political parties by splitting them or buying in some of their leaders. Those policies managed to weaken the two big political parties, the Umma Party and the DUP, so that now we have more than four factions of Umma parties and DUP. The DUP and Umma parties are ideologically close to the Islamists as they all have Islamic agendas. But the main problem which the NCP regime is facing now is the failure of their project (the Civilisation Project) while the split between the NCP and PCP has also weakened them.

But most important is that the policies which they have adopted in the last 20 years which have earned them a lot of enemies. One example is their policies in Darfur. Another is the corruption which has become the norm in Sudanese political life. A genuine democracy will open up government and that will expose their corrupt practices. They will not be able to play the Islamic card any more as they cannot claim the high moral ground.

Even with weak and unorganised political parties I do not believe that think the NCP will win the majority of seats in the National Assembly or the regions. They might win the Presidential election by using the ICC card to get the sympathy votes, but if the election is free and fair, but they emerge from it weaker than now.

However, the possibility of fraud in the forthcoming election is very high. This is for one simple reason which is the control of the NCP of the entire government machine for the last 20 years. Impartiality used to be the dominant factor in the Sudanese civil service most of the time before June 1989, but now the entire government apparatus, in both the central government and the states, is totally controlled by NCP supporters. Many of them will be responsible for controlling the election process and their main objective will be to ensure that the NCP wins. If we look at the combination of the National Election Commission (NEC) it is not 100% impartial. Dr Abdel Ahmed Abdel Alla, Deputy Chairman of the NEC was the government’s ambassador in Washington in the 1990s and they carefully selected other NEC members.

The Islamists have history of manipulating elections at different levels. One example of how they used to do that was disclosed , after the split of the NCP and PCP, when some of the PCP members disclosed how they used manipulate University of Khartoum Student s Union election. As most of committees that used to supervise the elections were from their supporters they used to have two ballot boxes, one for the student to put their voting papers and the other full of papers ticked in favour of the their candidates names, and immediately after the end to voting some replaced the original box with the one which they had prepared earlier.

In a genuine free and fair election the NCP will not get the same share of votes, which they got in 1986. Most of their wins in 1986 were in the cities. Ali Osman won a seat in Khartoum Sahafa, Mahdi Ibrahim in Khartoum North Douin Bahari and Osman Khalid in Khartoum Bori. They won almost all of the Graduates seats because of votes from the Diaspora. But they failed to win in Kordofan and Darfur apart from three seats in Darfur which they secured through the divisions or weakness of the Umma Party. Their three Darfur MPs later defected to the DUP out of opposition to the NIF policies in Darfur.

Now there are many changes within Khartoum. Most of the voters in the slums around the capital are most probably to vote SPLM than NCP, as most of them are either from Kordofan, Darfur or the South. I think one of the reasons for delaying the census result is to look for ways to deal with those new demographic realities.

The NCP might get some votes in Abdel Rahim Hamdi triangle (Kosti-Sennar-Khartoum, the northern regions) and they have to compete with the Umma Party and the DUP in those areas.

Most of the big figures who join the NCP recently, joined as individuals, they failed to bring their constituencies with them (e.g. Mohamed Ali Mardi, from Kordofan). It is not likely that they will stand a strong chance of winning if they decide to run for election as NCP candidates. The NCP will certainly try to use its huge financial resources to buy some votes, but that will never win them the majority of votes. They tried that approach in 1986 and failed.

As mentioned above el Bashir might win the presidential election because of the ICC. But that depends on the attitude of other political parties and their stand on the ICC issue. If they decide change their stand and follow al Turabi’s line that might play against him.

I expect that the result on any forthcoming election will be in line with 1986 election with some changes in Darfur and the East as the local parties in those areas might increase their share of votes in the expense of the main parties, Umma and DUP. However the main problem is no one believes that we will have free and fair election in the current political climate.