Head of Africa Forecasting at Exclusive Analysis, Natznet Tesfay, believes that the coup in Mali is likely to delay elections by 6-12 months, hike mining taxes and raise terrorism risks for northern uranium and oil operations.

In a major incident response to Exclusive Analysis clients, she said “widespread popular support for the military coup is due to grievances over President Touré’s perceived lack of commitment to the preparation of the 29 April 2012 presidential elections and alleged complicit involvement in cocaine trafficking.”  She continued:

Two Week Outlook

“In the two-week outlook, businesses in the capital Bamako are at high risk of extortion and asset seizure by lower-ranking soldiers. We assess that property associated with the president’s inner circle will be primary targets.

Three Month Outlook

Within the three-month outlook, contracts awarded to or by close allies of President Touré face severe risks of suspension and cancellation due to allegations of corruption. Such contracts include the phosphate exploration contract awarded to Togouna Agro-industrie and the uranium mining contract to Rockgate Capital.

While risks of expropriation and outright cancellation are primarily concentrated to smaller mining and energy firms, larger natural resource firms are likely to face pressure to raise production and expand exploration. An increase in mining taxes is likely.

Terrorism Risks

Tuareg rebels are likely to take advantage of the situation to consolidate their positions in the north, particularly in the Kidal region, but are unlikely to move to capture Bamako. Northern uranium mining operations and oil exploration will be at heightened risk from Tuareg rebels and, to a lesser extent, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. Most gold mines are far away in the south and will be at a much lower risk.

Exclusive Analysis Ltd is a specialist intelligence company that forecasts commercially relevant political and violent risks worldwide.