African Arguments

Top Menu

  • About Us
  • Write for us
  • Contact us
  • Advertise
  • Newsletter
  • RSS feed
  • Donate

Main Menu

  • Home
  • Country
    • Central
      • Cameroon
      • Central African Republic
      • Chad
      • Congo-Brazzaville
      • Congo-Kinshasa
      • Equatorial Guinea
      • Gabon
    • East
      • Burundi
      • Comoros
      • Dijbouti
      • Eritrea
      • Ethiopia
      • Kenya
      • Rwanda
      • Seychelles
      • Somalia
      • South Sudan
      • Sudan
      • Tanzania
      • Uganda
      • Red Sea
    • North
      • Algeria
      • Egypt
      • Libya
      • Morocco
      • Tunisia
      • Western Sahara
    • Southern
      • Angola
      • Botswana
      • Lesotho
      • Madagascar
      • Malawi
      • Mauritius
      • Mozambique
      • Namibia
      • South Africa
      • Swaziland
      • Zambia
      • Zimbabwe
    • West
      • Benin
      • Burkina Faso
      • Cape Verde
      • Côte d’Ivoire
      • The Gambia
      • Ghana
      • Guinea
      • Guinea Bissau
      • Liberia
      • Mali
      • Mauritania
      • Niger
      • Nigeria
      • São Tomé and Príncipe
      • Senegal
      • Sierra Leone
      • Togo
  • Politics
    • Elections Map
  • Economy
  • Society
  • Culture
  • Specials
    • #EndSARS
    • Covid-19
    • Travelling While African
    • From the wit-hole countries…
    • Living in Translation
    • Red Sea
    • Beautiful Game
  • Podcast
  • Debating Ideas
  • About Us
  • Write for us
  • Contact us
  • Advertise
  • Newsletter
  • RSS feed
  • Donate

logo

African Arguments

  • Home
  • Country
    • Central
      • Cameroon
      • Central African Republic
      • Chad
      • Congo-Brazzaville
      • Congo-Kinshasa
      • Equatorial Guinea
      • Gabon
    • East
      • Burundi
      • Comoros
      • Dijbouti
      • Eritrea
      • Ethiopia
      • Kenya
      • Rwanda
      • Seychelles
      • Somalia
      • South Sudan
      • Sudan
      • Tanzania
      • Uganda
      • Red Sea
    • North
      • Algeria
      • Egypt
      • Libya
      • Morocco
      • Tunisia
      • Western Sahara
    • Southern
      • Angola
      • Botswana
      • Lesotho
      • Madagascar
      • Malawi
      • Mauritius
      • Mozambique
      • Namibia
      • South Africa
      • Swaziland
      • Zambia
      • Zimbabwe
    • West
      • Benin
      • Burkina Faso
      • Cape Verde
      • Côte d’Ivoire
      • The Gambia
      • Ghana
      • Guinea
      • Guinea Bissau
      • Liberia
      • Mali
      • Mauritania
      • Niger
      • Nigeria
      • São Tomé and Príncipe
      • Senegal
      • Sierra Leone
      • Togo
  • Politics
    • Elections Map
  • Economy
  • Society
  • Culture
  • Specials
    • #EndSARS
    • Covid-19
    • Travelling While African
    • From the wit-hole countries…
    • Living in Translation
    • Red Sea
    • Beautiful Game
  • Podcast
  • Debating Ideas
Politics

Liberating African Economic History from the Tyranny of Econometrics – By Alex de Waal

By African Arguments
June 24, 2015
2767
2
Share:

AfricaJervenMorten Jerven, Africa: Why Economists Get it Wrong, London, Zed, 2015

There is a longstanding joke about Sudanese statistics: 87.7% of official figures are made up on the spot. Morten Jerven’s fabulous short book is a vindication of such skepticism, continent-wide and covering the last 25 years of economic analysis and policymaking. His aim is ambitious: nothing less than claiming that economists””specifically econometricians, who apply statistics to economic data to draw general conclusions””have got Africa badly wrong, and they have done so because they have succumbed to the problem of garbage in, garbage out, on a gargantuan scale. Jerven shows how the problem of bad data, has occurred at every stage from the generation of basic data points to the inferences from datasets that give the illusion of precision. Sophisticated correlations are worth nothing if the data points are wrong.

Jerven’s earlier book, Poor Numbers, was a blast of refreshing common sense, illuminating just how dubious were the numbers on which African economic policymaking was based. Essentially, econometricians had pulled a confidence trick. They failed to reveal just how shaky their basic numbers were, and tried to compensate for this failing with mathematical sophistication.

In Africa: Why Economists Get it Wrong, Jerven takes the argument one big step further. He writes (p. 16):

“If you ask an economist about the evidence supporting their conclusions, they will direct you to the inferential statistical results and tell you about coefficients of determination, statistical significance and robustness tests. By contrast, if you ask a historian about evidence, he or she will respond by telling you about the quality of the primary observations.”

His point is that econometricians commonly lack historical awareness, both in terms of historians’ methods, and also the basic facts of economic history. As a result, they try to explain something that didn’t actually happen. Africa’s chronic growth deficit didn’t happen. What did happen””as everyone who lived in the continent knows””was that African economies grew in the 1960s and early 70s, stalled in the 1980s and early 1990s, then grew again, albeit in a different fashion. Africa’s story isn’t one of chronic slow growth, but of boom, bust and boom again. There was a time-specific economic crisis””deeper and more protracted in Africa than elsewhere in the world””and that is what needs to be explained. That requires economic historians, not mathematical models.

Many economists””of whom Paul Collier is among Jerven’s favourite targets””use data on governance variables from the 1990s to explain economic performance during the previous decades, arguing that these indicators explain a chronic growth deficit. As Jerven coolly points out, everyday logic requires that cause precedes effect. Moreover, economic performance can drive political and institutional outcomes””a key point made by Robert Bates in his book When Things Fell Apart. It is prima facie more plausible that the causality runs the opposite way: Africa was exposed to economic shocks, including imposed austerity measures, that led to precisely the governance and institutional outcomes that were (poorly) measured at the turn of the millennium.

Africa: Why Economists Get it Wrong is a slender but important book. It is a charter for liberating African economic policymaking from the tyranny of econometricians.

Alex de Waal is Director of the World Peace Foundation. 

Previous Article

Understanding Musa Hilal and Mohamed Hamdan “Hametti” ...

Next Article

Blessed rain and old faces: Pa’gan Amum’s ...

mm

African Arguments

2 comments

  1. Adams Asamoah 25 June, 2015 at 20:15

    Economic discourse on Africa has always had distortions and inaccurate documentations because of many factors. One is the continuous influence of non-Africans providing economic expertise on a continent with a far away Lens. Secondly, the one “jacket- fits-all” policy prescriptions to the continent. Thirdly, lack of scientifically tested economic data on economic activities of the continent. And finally, the informalities of our economic interactions makes it impossible to provide accurate economic representations of what is actually happening on the continent. Just ignore the complexities and similarities of each country and all is mixed up with untested predictions. Good posting.

  2. kwame zulu shabazz 26 June, 2015 at 13:09

    The most insidious outcomes of centuries of European imperialism is the colonizing of knowledge. Hopefully, more African scholars will follow the lead of Diop, or Theophile Obenga, of Ayi Kwei Armah, of Sankara, and even books by Europeans like de Waal.

Leave a reply Cancel reply

  • Politics

    Somali Elections: politicians continue to use the country’s institutions for personal profit – By Prof. Liban A. Egal

  • People protest against President Nkurunziza's decision to run for a third term in 2015. Credit: Igor Rugwiza.
    BurundiPolitics

    Burundi 2020: Is President Nkurunziza already at it again?

  • Politics

    Revisiting the Nuba Mountains

  • 80698
    Followers

Interactive Elections Map

Keep up to date with all the African elections.

Most read

  • africa elections 2021

    Africa Elections 2021: All the upcoming votes

  • ISIS-DRC US sanctions against ADF come as US military advisers and the UN peacekeeping MONUSCO show renewed interest in supporting Congolese forces FARDC in conducting operations against the ADF. Credit: MONUSCO/Sylvain Liechti.

    The US has placed sanctions on ISIS-DRC, but does the group even exist?

  • “What this generation wants”: African authors publishing direct to the web

  • kenya refugee camps closure

    Whether or not Kenya closes its camps, much damage has been done

  • Will President Samia Suluhu Hassan address gender inequality in Tanzania?

    Tanzania has a female president. Does it have a feminist president?

Brought to you by


Creative Commons

Creative Commons Licence
Articles on African Arguments are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
  • Cookies
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • en English
    am Amharicar Arabicny Chichewazh-CN Chinese (Simplified)en Englishfr Frenchde Germanha Hausait Italianpt Portuguesest Sesothosn Shonaes Spanishsw Swahilixh Xhosayo Yorubazu Zulu
© Copyright African Arguments 2020
en English
am Amharicar Arabicny Chichewazh-CN Chinese (Simplified)en Englishfr Frenchde Germanha Hausait Italianpt Portuguesest Sesothosn Shonaes Spanishsw Swahilixh Xhosayo Yorubazu Zulu