The Sudan War series is a joint collaboration between the Center for Economic, Legal, and Social Studies and Documentation – Khartoum (CEDEJ-K), Sudan-Norway Academic Cooperation (SNAC) and African Arguments – Debating Ideas. Through a number of themes that explore the intersections of war, displacement, identities and capital, Sudanese researchers, many of whom are themselves displaced, highlight their own experiences, the unique dynamisms within the larger communities affected by war, and readings of their possible futures.
Micro-scale soap manufacturing set up inside a home. Credit: Muzan AlNeel
Soap and detergent manufacturing became a lifeline for Mona,[1] sustaining her through a trifold displacement – from Khartoum to Wad Madani, to its peripheries, and finally to Atbara. Mona, along with millions of others, became displaced after the war broke out between the Rapid Support forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in April 2023. For Khidhir, another Sudanese displaced due to the war, the same sector, detergents manufacturing, provided a crucial source of income as he navigated life in RSF-controlled areas of the capital, Khartoum. Income from work in these small-scale enterprises provided much-needed funds to his displaced family in the north. Not far away, Abdelrahman, a metal sheet worker, adapted to the crisis by producing traditional stoves, meeting the soaring demand after cooking gas became scarce. Despite operating in an RSF-controlled area, Abdelrahman’s security concerns mirrored those of Omer, a small-scale shoe factory owner in SAF-controlled territory as they are both mostly concerned about aggression and looting from armed actors, soldiers or gangs. Though their strategies for navigating risk and uncertainty differed, their stories, as well as those of hundreds of micro- and small-scale manufacturers around the country, reveal a shared sense of resilience against Sudan’s everyday volatile reality.
Micro- and small-scale manufacturing (MSM), like many other productive sectors, faces severe challenges during conflict. Diminished security, destroyed infrastructure, the loss of workers due to death or forced migration, and a decline in consumer demand are just some of the critical impacts. These circumstances disproportionately affect micro- and small businesses, which often lack the capital to absorb shocks or rebuild essential infrastructure and utilities. Yet, even in conflict settings, production firms – especially those producing inelastic and low-technology goods – demonstrate remarkable resilience and adaptability. This highlights a dual reality: the continuous struggles faced by micro- and small-scale manufacturers, alongside the tools, knowledge, and strategies they develop to survive. Despite this, the topic of small business and manufacturing activities during war remains understudied. Reasons include a focus on macroeconomics, the de-prioritization of people-centred politics and economic activities, the lack of suitable economic theories, and the inherent difficulties of data collection in conflict zones. This blog piece delves into some of the findings from an ongoing longer study on MSM activities during the ongoing war in Sudan.
The research employs narrative analysis to examine unstructured interviews with micro- and small-scale manufacturers operating both inside and outside areas of active military operations, including regions controlled by different warring parties. The narrative analysis method was chosen for its ability to employ a contextualized framework and hence produce nuanced insights into individual and collective behaviours, useful for capturing the accumulated and embedded knowledge of local practitioners. Additionally, the study incorporates principles of participatory research, emphasizing direct engagement with participants. This approach centres the experiences and perspectives of manufacturers in defining the study’s scope, rather than imposing predefined frameworks. It also aims to support the community – particularly the manufacturers – by enhancing their competencies as well as assessing and developing existing social, technological, and economic tools and practices.
This essay is part of a larger study whose focus is on small-scale manufacturing implemented by the researcher via the ISTinaD Research Centre. It is driven by the sector’s proven ability to deliver high economic returns, create significant employment opportunities, and enhance a community’s technological sovereignty. These factors are critical for fostering development and self-determination and enabling democratic societies, particularly in the global South. Equally important is the observed surge in MSM activities across Sudan since the onset of the war. Hundreds – if not thousands – of these enterprises have emerged, providing means of living for war-struck communities and individuals, and supplying the struggling Sudanese market with essential goods such as dairy products, packaging material, coal, detergents, leather goods, clay products, metal sheet items, and more. This resilience and adaptability underscore the sector’s vital role in sustaining communities during times of crisis and recovery.
Business formation and market dynamics of Sudan’s wartime MSMs
An exploration of MSM businesses in wartime Sudan reveals diverse formations and market entry strategies. Many newcomers to the sector entered low-technology product markets that were previously semi-monopolized. These included dairy products and bottled water, once dominated by a single family-owned business with factories in the capital. Detergents are another sub-sector largely controlled before 2023 by a handful of private investors and companies tied to the security apparatus.
The large-scale firms that monopolized low-technology production in a country of 40 million people exhibited a well-documented pattern in response to political instability: cost reduction and risk aversion. This led them to cease operations or relocate from the capital to areas with better infrastructure as seen in the case of Sudan’s largest privately owned conglomerate Dal Group. While this behaviour aligns with the profit-maximization logic of large-scale capitalist enterprises, it has counter-developmental effects, including mass unemployment and the further centralization of economic development.
A coherent industrial policy could have mitigated the war’s impact by mandating large-scale businesses to maintain minimum operations within the country and redistributing their geographic footprint to create new production hubs and employment opportunities nationwide. However, economic decentralization and the resulting citizen empowerment clearly do not align with the interests of the ruling elites. The rentier economic interest of ruling class, in addition to the experienced incompetence of the ruling and middle class, led to no such policy being implemented.
While large-scale businesses prioritized profit maximization and cost reduction during times of conflict, MSMs stepped in to fill the market gaps they left behind. Hundreds, if not thousands, of MSM enterprises emerged to supply the Sudanese market with essential low-technology products. The sector boasts many success stories, yet it is generally marked by the short lifespans of individual businesses.
However, closer observation reveals that seasonality and market responsiveness are integral to the modus operandi of low-tech MSM practitioners. This suggests that the short lifespan of investing in a specific product is part of a broader pattern of shifting production to align with seasonal or emerging market conditions, a quality that has its positive as well as negative implications. These adaptive practices enable low-tech MSMs to accumulate significant knowledge about market behaviour and product adaptation.
Yet, the short-term business models and the fragmented market conditions created by the war leave little room for leveraging this knowledge or scaling opportunities. These dynamics highlight both the resilience and the constraints of MSMs operating within volatile environments.
Another group of MSM businesses operating during the war consists of pre-war medium-sized manufacturing enterprises that were forced to downscale and adopt lower technologies due to the conflict. This is evident, for example, in medium-sized leather product factories around the capital. The outbreak of war exposed these factories to heightened risks in their operational zones; labour migration, raw material shortages and limited access to leather tanning facilities besieged within war zones.
While many leather factories in the capital shut down, others pursued adaptive strategies, such as substituting leather with plastic or reverting to traditional leather tanning methods. Both approaches allowed for workforce reduction and adaptation to deteriorating infrastructure – particularly the unreliable electricity supply in post-2023 Sudan, regardless of proximity to military operations. However, these strategies also imposed limitations on product quality (e.g., plastic shoes or untanned leather holsters compared to pre-war outputs) and contributed to skill atrophy due to the reliance on lower technologies.
In turn, the decline in product quality, complexity, and worker skill levels poses long-term risks to the Sudanese market’s recovery potential. Addressing these challenges requires well-informed, responsive policies that emphasize elevating product quality and technological standards. Such measures should be integrated into an industrial policy framework aimed at retaining and developing Sudan’s human capital and overall economic and productive capacities.
The type of business formation process is a key characteristic for analysing the diverse behaviours and strategies of MSMs in war-torn Sudan. Despite their differences, these businesses often share common traits. For instance, a primary motivator for engaging in manufacturing activities is the potential for high and quick returns, with numerous success stories of individuals achieving their desired income levels.
The high value-added and returns generated by manufacturing benefit not only individual entrepreneurs but also the broader developmental prospects of the country. MSMs in Sudan over the past couple of years have also created employment opportunities and stimulated productive spillovers (e.g. the production of packaging material in response to an increase of detergents, cosmetics, bottled water and other products of MSMs) across the supply chain. High returns, employment opportunities and spillovers are pillars of the capacity of manufacturing to generate significant revenue in support of national development and the provision of basic services to the population.
Responding to risk, adapting to change
MSMs operating in active conflict zones, such as Khartoum and Darfur, face extreme uncertainty and heightened risks, including threats to life and the destruction of facilities and production assets. This uncertainty also extends to MSMs run by internally displaced persons (IDPs), many of whom lack housing security and operate within weakened social safety nets. While such conditions are typical in wartime, the responses of MSMs diverge significantly from the orthodox risk-averse behaviours often emphasized in traditional business education, such as MBA programmes.
For instance, when confronted with heightened risk or volatility – such as anticipated battlefield shifts disrupting supply chains – many surveyed manufacturers reported prioritizing securing raw materials and production assets to maintain operations. Additionally, numerous entrepreneurs mentioned that they perceive their homes to be at risk of shelling the same way their work areas are. This was a key reason for them to return to work since they are in equal danger even if they don’t. This adaptive resilience highlights how MSMs navigate extreme conditions by balancing survival imperatives with entrepreneurial determination, challenging conventional business paradigms in the process.
Metal sheet fabrication – in a market in an RSF controlled area in the capital. Credit: Muzan AlNeel
The impact of war extended beyond direct security risks to encompass widespread disruptions across the supply chain, from challenges in sourcing raw materials to declining demand and purchasing power. To adapt, surveyed businesses employed various strategies, such as substituting imported materials with local alternatives and the emergence of small-scale retail sellers of raw materials near new markets and workshops. This shift responds to the fragmentation of markets in areas of active military operations and RSF-controlled territories.
In response to reduced purchasing power and demand, MSMs focused on producing functional and essential products. For instance, metal sheet manufacturers shifted their focus to meet the demand for traditional stoves due to the scarcity of cooking gas. Similarly, clay manufacturers prioritized water storage products to address water shortages in conflict zones. Outside active combat areas, the demand for water storage spurred the rise of micro- and small-scale plastic container manufacturing and imports, particularly in regions with access to functioning business centres such as the eastern and northern states.
However, functional products did not always equate to basic survival goods. For example, clay producers in the capital reported high demand for incense burners and coffee sets, often used in social gatherings, reflecting consumers’ willingness to spend on aesthetic and communal items and the social maintenance and welfare of their communities. These examples highlight MSMs’ ability to gather market intelligence and rapidly adjust their supply chain in response to shifting demands. This adaptability is facilitated by their close proximity to consumers, suppliers, and the surrounding environment, enabling a constant flow of information that in turn informs swift decision-making.
Conclusion
The exploration of MSMs in wartime Sudan reveals a range of strategies employed by the sector to survive and operate under extreme constraints. These strategies, developed in response to rapidly shifting markets, uncertainty, and direct risks, offer valuable insights for industrial policy design. Such lessons extend beyond wartime contexts to include economic recovery, climate change adaptation, and global disruptions like pandemics – scenarios where rapid change, uncertainty, and risk are increasingly becoming the norm.
Studying Sudan’s MSMs also highlights opportunities to support the country’s population through communal resource mobilization, research and development of technological solutions, and the creation of social and legal institutions to bolster this vital sector. Additionally, it underscores the need for, and informs, policies that advance higher-technology, geographically decentralized, and labour-intensive medium- to large-scale manufacturing: a path of industrialization necessary for the development and freedom of the people of Sudan.
Endnote
[1] Pseudonyms are used throughout to ensure anonymity, but all accounts are based on real individuals.
Debating Ideas reflects the values and editorial ethos of the African Arguments book series, publishing engaged, often radical, scholarship, original and activist writing from within the African continent and beyond. It offers debates and engagements, contexts and controversies, and reviews and responses flowing from the African Arguments books. It is edited and managed by the International African Institute, hosted at SOAS University of London, the owners of the book series of the same name.
