The Day of Justice
Sentiment and intuition, unlike the mysticism of the ‘cave man’, are the germs of conscience. I choose to use them to predict the obvious, the epitome of the process of a faltering state. I think this piece could contribute to a reading of how the NIF not only failed in its own designs, but also is going to witness the brutal unintended consequences of a blind alley they had charted in 1989. If the picture turns out to be different, I will be the victor.
There are perhaps just six weeks left before the three judges of the ICC’s pre-trial chamber issue their arrest warrant for a sitting Head of State, Field Marshal Omar Hassan Ahmed al-Bashir, accused of ten counts; three of genocide, five of crimes against humanity including rape, and two on war crimes. I have no doubt that ICC prosecutor Ocampo will have it his way, just as he had succeeded in a dozen indictments earlier. This is simply because evidence on any of the ten counts would make the court ask al-Bashir to appear in the ICC. If he does not submit to the warrant, he will be defined a fugitive. Now, it is unlikely that President al-Bashir will be charged with genocide. But will not walk away clean on all the ten counts, particularly the one on rape. So far he has not chosen to succumb to the Court.
The worst case scenario is that justice will be the loser, both ways. If the judges issue a summons or arrest warrant, the NIF, its supporters and its militias, will vehemently lash-out killing whoever comes their way, in Darfur or elsewhere, including in Khartoum. The Popular Defence Forces, 60,000 in Darfur plus 20,000 in Southern Kordofan and who knows how many elsewhere will crack down in all directions. The 26,000 UN and AU peackeepers, 11,000 CPA-related and 15,000 DPA-related, will be targeted for peacekeeping and peacemaking. The SPLA 50,000 will not be able to say ‘enough-is-enough’. There are innumerable small arms in the hands of civilians, trained during the years of war to use and maintain them. They will do some looting, at least in the main cities. There will no CPA, DPA, ESPA any more. There will not exist anymore the lovely country we used to know, the Sudan.
In the end of the Day of International Justice, the Sudanese people will kill each other. hen the real genocidal act is over, the President has gone, all the prominent leaders we know of are gone, the beloved country is gone. Those who survive such auto destruction will say the man had an informed understanding of African colonial history. He took his country with him.
The government is looking for the impossible. It is using the ICC case now to seek the support of Sudanese as well as other nations. Hot rhetoric is everywhere. Sudanese are fed up with war, no one is ready to raise a weapon for the sake of this regime. The NIF militia is now business men and women who accumulated wealth and are not ready to fight for any one except their bank accounts. As for the other partys’ youth they are passive thanks to Alturabi who disclosed their decitful tactics used in the past to steer them. Ordinary people are suffering under the soaring food prices, high taxes, and governmental sanctions. They want to get rid of this regime. ICC will issue an arrest warrant, and will not be able to arrest Albashir. One will be reminded with Joseph kony of LRA case. Internal and external pressure on NIF may result in under the table deals and the collapse of the regime. Hot rhetoric will cool soon and justice is to be served. three countries will emerge in the south, west, and north.
I agree with Khalil. It is true that Al Bshir’s strategy of mobilizing passion against other Sudanese groups or against presumed conspiracy by the west is losing any credibility in the eyes of many Sudanese. People, tired of wars and frustrated by increasing poverty under Bashir, will not respond to call to war and the kind of actions the writer is predicting, if the Bashir is indicted.
Justice needs to be served on all guilty parties.