African Arguments

Top Menu

  • About Us
    • Our philosophy
  • Write for us
  • Contact us
  • Advertise
  • Newsletter
  • RSS feed
  • Donate
  • Fellowship

Main Menu

  • Home
  • Country
    • Central
      • Cameroon
      • Central African Republic
      • Chad
      • Congo-Brazzaville
      • Congo-Kinshasa
      • Equatorial Guinea
      • Gabon
    • East
      • Burundi
      • Comoros
      • Dijbouti
      • Eritrea
      • Ethiopia
      • Kenya
      • Rwanda
      • Seychelles
      • Somalia
      • Somaliland
      • South Sudan
      • Sudan
      • Tanzania
      • Uganda
      • Red Sea
    • North
      • Algeria
      • Egypt
      • Libya
      • Morocco
      • Tunisia
      • Western Sahara
    • Southern
      • Angola
      • Botswana
      • eSwatini
      • Lesotho
      • Madagascar
      • Malawi
      • Mauritius
      • Mozambique
      • Namibia
      • South Africa
      • Zambia
      • Zimbabwe
    • West
      • Benin
      • Burkina Faso
      • Cape Verde
      • Côte d’Ivoire
      • The Gambia
      • Ghana
      • Guinea
      • Guinea Bissau
      • Liberia
      • Mali
      • Mauritania
      • Niger
      • Nigeria
      • São Tomé and Príncipe
      • Senegal
      • Sierra Leone
      • Togo
  • Politics
    • Elections Map
  • Economy
  • Society
    • Climate crisis
  • Culture
  • Specials
    • From the fellows
    • Radical Activism in Africa
    • On Food Security & COVID19
    • #EndSARS
    • Covid-19
    • Travelling While African
    • From the wit-hole countries…
    • Living in Translation
    • Red Sea
    • Beautiful Game
  • Podcast
    • Into Africa Podcast
    • Africa Science Focus Podcast
    • Think African Podcast
  • Debating Ideas
  • About Us
    • Our philosophy
  • Write for us
  • Contact us
  • Advertise
  • Newsletter
  • RSS feed
  • Donate
  • Fellowship

logo

African Arguments

  • Home
  • Country
    • Central
      • Cameroon
      • Central African Republic
      • Chad
      • Congo-Brazzaville
      • Congo-Kinshasa
      • Equatorial Guinea
      • Gabon
    • East
      • Burundi
      • Comoros
      • Dijbouti
      • Eritrea
      • Ethiopia
      • Kenya
      • Rwanda
      • Seychelles
      • Somalia
      • Somaliland
      • South Sudan
      • Sudan
      • Tanzania
      • Uganda
      • Red Sea
    • North
      • Algeria
      • Egypt
      • Libya
      • Morocco
      • Tunisia
      • Western Sahara
    • Southern
      • Angola
      • Botswana
      • eSwatini
      • Lesotho
      • Madagascar
      • Malawi
      • Mauritius
      • Mozambique
      • Namibia
      • South Africa
      • Zambia
      • Zimbabwe
    • West
      • Benin
      • Burkina Faso
      • Cape Verde
      • Côte d’Ivoire
      • The Gambia
      • Ghana
      • Guinea
      • Guinea Bissau
      • Liberia
      • Mali
      • Mauritania
      • Niger
      • Nigeria
      • São Tomé and Príncipe
      • Senegal
      • Sierra Leone
      • Togo
  • Politics
    • Elections Map
  • Economy
  • Society
    • Climate crisis
  • Culture
  • Specials
    • From the fellows
    • Radical Activism in Africa
    • On Food Security & COVID19
    • #EndSARS
    • Covid-19
    • Travelling While African
    • From the wit-hole countries…
    • Living in Translation
    • Red Sea
    • Beautiful Game
  • Podcast
    • Into Africa Podcast
    • Africa Science Focus Podcast
    • Think African Podcast
  • Debating Ideas
Politics
Home›African Arguments›Politics›South Sudan: Rumours

South Sudan: Rumours

By Alex de Waal
March 24, 2010
1842
0

An article in the East African newspaper yesterday speculated that western nations were backtracking on their commitment to self-determination in southern Sudan. Based on unnamed sources, and with no hard evidence, and with just one quote from a US embassy official who in fact said that the US remained committed to the CPA timetable, the article fueled fears among southern Sudanese that there is a growing international conspiracy to deny them the right to the independence option in next year’s referendum. This is reminiscent of the furore that followed the remarks by AU Chairperson Jean Ping and UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon at the AU summit two months ago, in which both said they preferred the unity of Sudan.

Southern Sudanese sensitivities over whether they will be able to exercise the secession option have grown as the date has approached. Southern Sudanese are aware that the CPA obliges the parties to work for unity, and know that the international guarantors of the CPA will therefore, at the very minimum, pay lip service to the unity preference. They also know that all African states, and the AU, are instinctively pro-unity. The very purpose of the AU is to bring African countries closer together, and so it will obviously treat any secessionist tendencies with suspicion, and only support secession in exceptional circumstances.

Southern Sudanese sensitivities are understandable. But it is important to read the signals carefully and not jump to conclusions. Southern Sudanese have enough challenges in front of them in the next year, and don’t need to be fighting shadows.

The AU, UN and western countries are all committed to the CPA with its two options of unity and secession. None has the capacity to prevent secession even if they wanted to do so. (See the recent Council on Foreign Relations report by Kate Almquist for a balanced and forward-looking assessment.) For all of them, the credibility of their commitment to an agreement counts for a great deal. They believe in the rule of law and cannot repudiate a commitment without paying a price. And since the CPA, they have committed themselves to the right of self-determination, and this cannot easily be reversed.

Without doubt, the international community is concerned about the consequences of secession, especially if it is carried out in a contested way. African states are certainly worried about the precedent that will be set: there are actual or potential secessionists in many countries in Africa. But they also know that the case of southern Sudan is exceptional, and that the AU and IGAD cannot readily renege on the commitment to the CPA.

Another interesting rumour is that IGAD is pro-secession while the AU is pro-unity. This is the kind of political gossip that doesn’t survive scrutiny. The chair of IGAD is Ethiopia, and it is inconceivable that the Ethiopian government would take IGAD in a different direction to the AU. IGAD’s involvement in CPA implementation at this stage will strengthen the AU, not undermine it.

However, because they are so sensitive to any hints of backsliding on self-determination, some southern Sudanese were ready to believe in, and encourage, the idea that IGAD might take an opposite tack to the AU. It is the sort of superficially clever, but actually inaccurate, reading of politics that could have led southern Sudanese into a blind diplomatic alley.

Far more useful is to monitor how the AU and the western governments actually respond to real events. There have been two important areas of progress in the last few months, and in each case a perceptible shift in diplomatic attitudes has followed.

One is that negotiations between north and south on the CPA endgame and post-referendum arrangements have begun. The NCP and SPLM have shown that they are willing and capable finding negotiated solutions to their differences.

The second is that the southern Sudanese are confounding the sceptics and managing the elections well. In fact, holding the elections before the referendum is turning out to be a considerable if unanticipated blessing. The imminence of the referendum provides a stabilizing force, reducing tension and the risk of conflict. But it is still a test of the government against the views of the people. It means that not just the pre-referendum Government of Southern Sudan, but also the post-referendum Government, will be legitimized by election. In a year’s time, that Government will be less than a year in office, with enough time in its remaining term to handle the immediate post-referendum tasks.

There’s no doubt that southern Sudan faces immense challenges. But under the pressure of the CPA deadlines, problems are being solved, and scenarios of lawlessness and state failure are fading away.

Southern Sudan is on the rise – there’s a rumour that should be circulated in the press.

Previous Article

Sudan: Which is Your Party?

Next Article

On Commitment to the CPA and Optimism ...

mm

Alex de Waal

Alex de Waal is Research Professor and Executive Director of the World Peace Foundation at The Fletcher School, Tufts University. He was the founding editor of the African Arguments book series. He is the author of The Real Politics of the Horn of Africa: Money, War and the Business of Power.

  • Politics

    Ghana: women still sidelined as 2012 election approaches – By Clair MacDougall

  • Politics

    New Report: Towards a New Republic of Sudan

  • Politics

    As narrow self-interest trumps attempts to solve the world’s problems, truly we are living in the worst of times – By Richard Dowden

Subscribe to our newsletter

Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and never miss a thing!

  • 81.7K+
    Followers

Find us on Facebook

Interactive Elections Map

Keep up to date with all the African elections.

Recent Posts

  • Blackness, Pan-African Consciousness and Women’s Political Organising through the Magazine AWA
  • “People want to be rich overnight”: Nigeria logging abounds despite ban
  • The unaccountability of Liberia’s polluting miners
  • Africa Elections 2023: All the upcoming votes
  • “Poking the Leopard’s Anus”: Legal Spectacle and Queer Feminist Politics

Editor’s Picks

CultureEditor's Picks

Best of the 2010s: African films

In the past decade, Africa’s film industries have shown a plucky ability to play in the big leagues. The rise of streaming platforms has democratised distribution, while filmmakers across the ...
  • A Ukraine solidarity protest in Trafalgar Square, London, on 26 February. Credit: Michael Boyle.

    Standing with Ukrainian refugees must mean standing with all refugees

    By Elena Liber
    March 1, 2022
  • women covid UN Women/Ryan Brown

    The pandemic has set gender equality back. Its legacy must not.

    By Nana Adjoa Hackman
    March 8, 2021
  • Sudan constitution. Friday service at the Hamed al-Nil tomb in Omdurman, Sudan. Credit: Carsten ten Brink.

    Sudan’s misguided fixation with finding a transformative constitution

    By Aida Abbashar
    October 5, 2022
  • Mauritians protesting on the streets in August 2020. Credit: Matt Savi.

    Mauritius: A picture perfect democracy’s fall from grace

    By Roukaya Kasenally
    May 12, 2021

Brought to you by


Creative Commons

Creative Commons Licence
Articles on African Arguments are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
  • Cookies
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • en English
    am Amharicar Arabicny Chichewazh-CN Chinese (Simplified)en Englishfr Frenchde Germanha Hausait Italianpt Portuguesest Sesothosn Shonaes Spanishsw Swahilixh Xhosayo Yorubazu Zulu
© Copyright African Arguments 2020
By continuing to browse this site, you agree to our use of cookies.
en English
am Amharicar Arabicny Chichewazh-CN Chinese (Simplified)en Englishfr Frenchde Germanha Hausait Italianpt Portuguesest Sesothosn Shonaes Spanishsw Swahilixh Xhosayo Yorubazu Zulu