African Arguments

Top Menu

  • About Us
  • Write for us
  • Contact us
  • Advertise
  • Newsletter
  • RSS feed
  • Donate
  • Fellowship

Main Menu

  • Home
  • Country
    • Central
      • Cameroon
      • Central African Republic
      • Chad
      • Congo-Brazzaville
      • Congo-Kinshasa
      • Equatorial Guinea
      • Gabon
    • East
      • Burundi
      • Comoros
      • Dijbouti
      • Eritrea
      • Ethiopia
      • Kenya
      • Rwanda
      • Seychelles
      • Somalia
      • Somaliland
      • South Sudan
      • Sudan
      • Tanzania
      • Uganda
      • Red Sea
    • North
      • Algeria
      • Egypt
      • Libya
      • Morocco
      • Tunisia
      • Western Sahara
    • Southern
      • Angola
      • Botswana
      • eSwatini
      • Lesotho
      • Madagascar
      • Malawi
      • Mauritius
      • Mozambique
      • Namibia
      • South Africa
      • Zambia
      • Zimbabwe
    • West
      • Benin
      • Burkina Faso
      • Cape Verde
      • Côte d’Ivoire
      • The Gambia
      • Ghana
      • Guinea
      • Guinea Bissau
      • Liberia
      • Mali
      • Mauritania
      • Niger
      • Nigeria
      • São Tomé and Príncipe
      • Senegal
      • Sierra Leone
      • Togo
  • Politics
    • Elections Map
  • Economy
  • Society
    • Climate crisis
  • Culture
  • Specials
    • From the fellows
    • Radical Activism in Africa
    • On Food Security & COVID19
    • #EndSARS
    • Covid-19
    • Travelling While African
    • From the wit-hole countries…
    • Living in Translation
    • Red Sea
    • Beautiful Game
  • Podcast
    • Into Africa Podcast
    • Africa Science Focus Podcast
    • Think African Podcast
  • Debating Ideas
  • About Us
  • Write for us
  • Contact us
  • Advertise
  • Newsletter
  • RSS feed
  • Donate
  • Fellowship

logo

Header Banner

African Arguments

  • Home
  • Country
    • Central
      • Cameroon
      • Central African Republic
      • Chad
      • Congo-Brazzaville
      • Congo-Kinshasa
      • Equatorial Guinea
      • Gabon
    • East
      • Burundi
      • Comoros
      • Dijbouti
      • Eritrea
      • Ethiopia
      • Kenya
      • Rwanda
      • Seychelles
      • Somalia
      • Somaliland
      • South Sudan
      • Sudan
      • Tanzania
      • Uganda
      • Red Sea
    • North
      • Algeria
      • Egypt
      • Libya
      • Morocco
      • Tunisia
      • Western Sahara
    • Southern
      • Angola
      • Botswana
      • eSwatini
      • Lesotho
      • Madagascar
      • Malawi
      • Mauritius
      • Mozambique
      • Namibia
      • South Africa
      • Zambia
      • Zimbabwe
    • West
      • Benin
      • Burkina Faso
      • Cape Verde
      • Côte d’Ivoire
      • The Gambia
      • Ghana
      • Guinea
      • Guinea Bissau
      • Liberia
      • Mali
      • Mauritania
      • Niger
      • Nigeria
      • São Tomé and Príncipe
      • Senegal
      • Sierra Leone
      • Togo
  • Politics
    • Elections Map
  • Economy
  • Society
    • Climate crisis
  • Culture
  • Specials
    • From the fellows
    • Radical Activism in Africa
    • On Food Security & COVID19
    • #EndSARS
    • Covid-19
    • Travelling While African
    • From the wit-hole countries…
    • Living in Translation
    • Red Sea
    • Beautiful Game
  • Podcast
    • Into Africa Podcast
    • Africa Science Focus Podcast
    • Think African Podcast
  • Debating Ideas
Politics

Libya: Gadaffi dead but risk of split remains – By Exclusive Analysis Ltd.

By Uncategorised
October 20, 2011
1509
0
Share:

Rising risks of collateral damage to Sirte basin oil assets and contract revisions.

On 20 October, media reported that Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, Libya’s former leader, was killed by National Transitional Council (NTC) forces. If confirmed, this would not alter the risk of assassination and bomb attacks against foreigners, especially those working in oil fields in the southwestern fields of Ubari and Murzuq, and against NTC officials. Gaddafi would have been very unlikely to play an operational role in such actions. The most important people in the conduct of such operations are Abdullah Sanusi, Gaddafi’s head of intelligence and his sons, Saif al-Islam and Mu’tassim, whose capture or death has not been confirmed. Other key players are mid-level security operatives under Gaddafi and members of his Gadadfa tribe and their allies the Warfala tribe, who are likely to aspire to a role in the future of Libyan politics. These individuals would have both the networks and the technical and operational expertise to conduct such a campaign.

On 4 October, the NTC said it would form a new government after Sirte was captured, which occurred on 20 October. Elections are set to be held eight months after that. The drafting of a new constitution is then due to begin, which we expect to reveal strong differences among the rebels over the allocation of oil and gas revenue to the provinces, the power of the central government relative to provincial governments and the ability of the provinces to contract foreign firms for infrastructure and oil projects. A failure to reach agreement on these constitutional issues within a few months of elections, combined with fighting between former rebels from Tripoli and rival factions from other north-western regions such as Zintan or Misurata, would increase the likelihood of secession by eastern Libya. This region has traditionally had a separate identity to north-western Libya (known as Tripolitania) and could be economically self-sufficient.

We do not assess this to be the most likely scenario in the one-year outlook, however. Rather, we are more likely to see small-scale fighting among the rebels, preceding and following an agreement over a weak federal state that leaves significant economic and security powers with the regions. However, secession would become more likely if the former rebels in north-western Libya fight one another using heavy weaponry for two or three months and if squabbling over a new constitution drags on for many months after elections.

If eastern Libya secedes, the coastal area around Sirte, which includes the oil towns of Sidr, Brega and Ras Lannuf, would likely see most of the fighting to demark the border line and for control of the Sirte basin oil fields, such as Waha, operated by ConocoPhillips, and Raguba. It is unlikely that fighters from the east or the west would be able to reach the major population centres of the other side, indicating that risks to airports and ports in Tripoli, Misurata and Benghazi in such a scenario would not rise significantly. If Sirte falls firmly into the east’s hands, this would indicate much lower risks of collateral damage to oil fields such as Sarir, Bu Attifel and other fields around Awjala and Jalu, where companies like Wintershall, Shlumberger and Eni operate. Revisions of Gaddafi era oil contracts would be very likely under this scenario

Exclusive Analysis is a specialist intelligence company that forecasts commercially relevant political and violent risks worldwide.

Previous Article

Don’t force statehood on Somalia by Richard ...

Next Article

Ghana: oil potential unknown and growing – ...

Uncategorised

0 comments

  1. October 20 | HispaLibertas 20 October, 2011 at 17:15

    […] Libya: Gadaffi dead but risk of split remains […]

Leave a reply Cancel reply

  • Politics

    Ending the LRA: reason for optimism and political commitment – By Ned Dalby, International Crisis Group

  • Politics

    Somalis in Kenya: ‘they call us ATM machines.’

  • EthiopiaPolitics

    What Ethiopia’s withdrawals from AMISOM mean for Somalia

Subscribe to our newsletter

Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and never miss a thing!

  • 81664
    Followers

Find us on Facebook

Interactive Elections Map

Keep up to date with all the African elections.

Popular articles

  • Evangelista Kanohili sits outside her home in Sheema, Uganda, March 15, 2022. Kanohili has been experiencing on-and-off infestations of jiggers, a small parasitic flea that burrows into the skin and can make it too painful to take care of daily tasks. Credit: Apophia Agiresaasi/Global Press Journal.

    Uganda: The tiny flea making it painful for people to walk and work

  • “Too much propaganda”: Zimbabwe’s pirates of the airwaves look to SA

  • Charity Nyoni, one of the growing number of women in Zimbabwe’s construction industry, tests paint on a board in a Victoria Falls showroom. Credit: Fortune Moyo/Global Press Journal.

    Building houses while knocking down gender barriers in Zimbabwe

  • Typical coping strategies such as a nomadic lifestyle are inadequate to handle what is potentially the worst food crisis in Somalia's recent past. Credit: UNDP Somalia.

    Somalia faces worst humanitarian crisis in recent history

  • Uganda's military is engaged in Operation Shujaa in DR Congo. Credit: Credit: Rick Scavetta, U.S. Army Africa.

    “Total Success”? The real goals of Uganda’s Operation Shujaa in DRC

Brought to you by


Creative Commons

Creative Commons Licence
Articles on African Arguments are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
  • Cookies
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • en English
    am Amharicar Arabicny Chichewazh-CN Chinese (Simplified)en Englishfr Frenchde Germanha Hausait Italianpt Portuguesest Sesothosn Shonaes Spanishsw Swahilixh Xhosayo Yorubazu Zulu
© Copyright African Arguments 2020
Cleantalk Pixel
By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies.
en English
am Amharicar Arabicny Chichewazh-CN Chinese (Simplified)en Englishfr Frenchde Germanha Hausait Italianpt Portuguesest Sesothosn Shonaes Spanishsw Swahilixh Xhosayo Yorubazu Zulu