Buhari’s popularity is a clear and present danger to the PDP – By Ejiro Barrett
Muhammadu Buhari’s growing popularity has forced the ruling PDP to take his electoral challenge seriously in 2015.
When Sule Lamido – the Governor of Nigeria’s northwestern state of Jigawa – warned that “the fear of General Muhammadu Buhari”, the presidential flag bearer for the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC), “is the beginning of wisdom”, during the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) Presidential rally in Dutse, the state capital, many didn’t fully grasp the point that was being made. With these words, Lamido clearly acknowledged the growing popularity- almost cult-like following- of the slim gap-toothed retired General amongst the youth of the region, as evidence of the growing dissatisfaction with the current political leadership. The statement was also an acknowledgement that the relevance of the current political leadership was eroding because of its inability to proffer solutions to pressing social challenges and the obvious apprehension over the phenomenal rise in Buhari’s popularity.
The governor’s statement also highlighted a most worrying fact; the realisation that this growing popularity would make it impossible, even foolhardy, to tamper with the electoral process, as has been the case in the past.
To the ruling party, images of large crowds at General Buhari’s rallies must come as worrying evidence of his rising profile and popularity. While these large crowds could only be counted in the north during the 2011 campaigns, today they are a recurring spectacle across the country; in the southwest, the middle belt and even the oil producing states of the deep south – the incumbent President Jonathan’s constituency and southeast – areas where the support for the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) was initially thought to be absolute and unwavering.
Whether the popularity of Buhari is the result of growing confidence in his proposed policies and programmes, or an indication of growing disenchantment with deteriorating social conditions and the pressing security challenges, is hard to ascertain, but it does present a real threat to the ruling PDP’s sixteen year hold on power. It is the first time a plausible alternative to incumbent political leadership has emerged in Nigeria’s history. For a party that has enjoyed unchallenged political control in most of Nigeria’s thirty six states and at the federal level since 1999, a strong opposition is hard to stomach.
Buhari also appears to have become more receptive to the divergent opinions that characterise Nigerian politics; time seems to have worked magic on his persona. The transformation from a stern and uncompromising figure who, many believed, represented ethnic and provincial interests, to a candidate whose avuncular gait has become one of his most endearing qualities, is impressive. Throughout his campaign he has managed to steer clear of controversial statements that could be interpreted as either inciting or derisive. For the first time since he first contested for the presidential seat in 2003, Buhari’s wife and daughters have been gracing public events and interacting with the public more than in previous campaigns; providing a real human face to the man who the ruling party has gone to great lengths to demonise.
These changes may have been the reason for his growing popularity in the southern part of the country, but that is beside the point; the prevalent opinion is that Buhari’s popularity poses a real threat to the incumbent leadership for some key reasons; the most significant is his insistence on tackling corruption, which has become the mantra of his campaign. It is believed that this is a major source of worry for a government that has been accused of widespread malfeasance. The list of allegations against members of the president’s cabinet is extensive: from the well-publicised cases of inflated costs for official vehicles, and involvement of government cronies in the infamous subsidy scam, to the myriad allegations of nepotism in government appointments and contracts.
It is believed that Buhari’s stern disposition stands as one of his most admired assets as well as one of his most dreaded. Recently, Olusegun Obasanjo, Nigeria’s former president and a leading member of the PDP until he recently ripped his membership card to bits publicly, alleged that President Jonathan was afraid of a Buhari presidency because he (Jonathan) was afraid of going to jail. Comic as this may sound, there is genuine fear that the straight talking retired General has a real determination to tackle corruption head on, and this poses a “clear and present danger” to several members of the current administration who, no doubt, would be hell bent on stopping him by whatever means, or so many believe.
Another reason, which seems to have been buried under the heap of social demands, is the issue of trust. Many in the north of Nigeria insist that President Jonathan’s decision to run for a second term is in breach of a promise he made in 2011 to do a single four-year term and allow a rotational system, ratified by his party, to continue. The rotational system is intended to maintain regional balance in political leadership by rotating leadership of key positions, including the Presidency, amongst the six geo-political zones in Nigeria. Analysts agree that this remains an issue of national importance and cannot be overlooked.
In 2010, when he became acting President, following the death of President Umaru Musa Yar A’dua, a northerner, President Jonathan set up a Presidential Committee that would advise on ways to address pressing issues that arose out of his ascendancy. The Committee was chaired by one of Nigeria’s former defense ministers, T.Y. Danjuma, and had a former inspector-general of police and respected leader from the north, Alhaji M.D. Yusuf, and several other prominent Nigerians as members.
The Committee, after its deliberations, called on the acting president not to contest the 2011 elections, in respect for the rotational system that was in existence at the time. In fact, during one of the meetings held with Jonathan, he was told bluntly by Danjuma that if he decided to contest the elections they, the members of the committee, would resign en masse to show their disapproval and to stress their point that it would create unnecessary tension in the country. To resolve the issue, it is alleged that Jonathan agreed to a one term presidency, after which the rotational system would continue. It is even assumed that it was on this promise that Obasanjo supported Jonathan’s candidacy for the 2011 presidential elections.
President Jonathan seems to have lost his mojo. Obasanjo is not the only one to have publicly shown his dissatisfaction with the President’s management of issues within the party. The PDP is facing what many have described as its most serious crisis of confidence; the party has been hit by mass defections of its members in the federal and state legislatures.
Top party members, who have voiced their concerns about the inability of the party to address its festering challenges, have been leaving in droves and joining opposition parties. One of the outcomes is that the PDP has lost its majority in several State Houses of Assembly and in the Federal House of Representatives, a most damaging blow indeed in Nigeria, where political strength is largely built around strong political figures whose control of huge financial resources is an essential tool in mobilizing public support. In fact, several political observers say a sharp-eyed politician like Obasanjo publicly destroying his membership card is compelling evidence that the party has lost its national relevance.
The defection of five PDP governors to the APC in November 2013 saw the PDP lose control of its most populated states where the numbers would have tilted the political balance in their favour against the APC: as it now stands, the key population centres of Kano state in the north west, Rivers state in the deep south, and Kwara state in north central, which were under the control of the PDP, have been lost to the APC. These are added to Lagos state, which has always been an opposition stronghold. The party rightly argues that the defection of the governors does not necessarily mean the loss of public support, or majority votes in those states. However, the popularity of these governors and the financial resources they control could go a long way to swing the votes in there.
Regardless of these events, the party remains adamant that it will coast to victory in the general elections, even if all indications suggest a more uncertain outcome. Many Nigerians believe there is more to this confidence than meets the eye. The recent rescheduling of the polls is seen as an indication of a plot to re-strategise in the face of an impending defeat. To this day, the reasons given for the shift have been varied and contradictory, further giving credence to the widespread suspicions. Whatever the truth, Buhari is a clear and present danger for the continued political domination of the PDP.
Ejiro Barrett is a freelance journalist.
Ejiro Barrett you hit the issues with much needed clarity. I was not in Nigeria during Buhari’s rule, but the statements from scared civil servants running to America was strong enough. You left several questions un-answered:
Can the ex-general control the crooks that’s financing his candidacy?
Will he be able to work around democratic institutions susceptible to bribes?
Nigeria is a basket case of corruption, and everybody is involved. It has become a cancer, and can it be cured without killing the patient.
I will respect his candidacy if he comes out with a platform of governance against corruption. Or is he just waiting to win the office, before implementing his stern style of leadership.
I am sure the corrupt people behind him have guarantees on how to control his unpredictable behavior.
This man is capable, but I am afraid he won’t be able to do much, due to the people behind him. My personal preference is to eliminate the top political class, like Jerry Rawlings did in Ghana. Only then will Nigeria have a chance at survival.
As I update my blog msmoney.org, I am certain nothing will change with the current group of politicians. We have all that is needed to be a great country, but leadership suffering from shortsightedness, lack of imagination, incompetence, and greediness will not let that nation thrive.
As we speculate, lets not forget the hidden hands of our former colonial masters. I sense they still control things from afar. Just look at all the fools with foreign educational degrees ruining that beautiful country.
As a side note: I predict Jonathan will win re-election, because the people that fear Buhari have more to lose. Now this victory will not be clean and clear, but he will survive nonetheless.
He is popular because this is he’s 4th attempt at the post. Nothing else. Once a loser always a loser.
“The transformation from a stern and uncompromising figure who, {many believed, represented ethnic and provincial interests”} First part of this characterization is true but the second part is made up. Unlike Raymond Okrika, I was in Nigeria thruout the regime of Buhari and Idiagbon, and they both were the best thing that happened to Nigeria since independence. They were remove by Babangida who was next on their cleanup list for his drug activities. Before the regime, people never queued/lined up at the post office to buy stamps, at banks, or at the bus stops. Nigerians never knew how to line up for anything. People clambered over the head of each other wherever a line was necessary. People also peed or s..t anywhere they could unzip or pull down their pants. Buhari and Idiagbon changed all that. To pee even in the bush, you were afraid that Idiagbon was watching you. Idiagbon was Yoruba and he was the front man for the regime. Buhari was not a man of many words, neither was Idiagbon. So the idea of Buhari being an ethnic or provincial demagogue is just politics the Nigerian way; fanning the amber of ethnicity and religion when nothing else worked. It is my hope that Nigeria gets over these two monsters (religion and ethnicity) that have stifled the growth of our country. I hope Buhari wins to take us from the ineptitude of Goodluck Jonathan.
hi ejiro,
with all u hv written, there is no way GEJ will not be re-elected. all d top politicians backing Buhari will give him a bill to settle if he wins nd nigerians know dat those backers are not ppl of integrity dat they profess to be. GEJ has been a quiet positive performer. Talk less, perform more.
To John above (commentor #2).
When you lose at anything in your life, simply throw your hands up in the air and give up.
Raymond gave himself away as an ethnic jingoist by his illogicality. First, the establihed crooks in Nigeria’s 2015 are the ones who purchase bullet proof cars at ear-tearing prices, those who spend N10 billion on jet hiring, those who jibe us of billions of Naira in the name of oil subsidy, those who steal our oil while they are paid billions to protect it, … and still counting ad infinitum. Second, the hearsay crooks behind Buhari are those personnages like Bisi Akande who turned down PDP’s invitation to come and chop filthy lucre as Minister and the enigma Asiwaju who has doggedly helped create a credible and sustainable opposition platform to the hugely confused and discredited ruling oligarchy. Come off it Raymond, you need an iron-cast Okrika evidence to make the crook tag stick. And I tell you something Raymond, if you travel from your Nevada base or wheresoever to Lagos enroute Abuja and disembark in Okrika, the evidence will only exist in your imagination and those of your ilk. Jonathan in 2011 had a pan- Nigerian mandate including those you now label crooks backed by a constitution that empowered him to consign the primitive wealth accumulators without a human face to the dustbin of history but choose to crack in the face of their vociferous barking. His helplessness was only to add his own column of looters. Cant you see, Raymond?
Bulls. This is about a man who disappeared from Nigeria and the campaign trail for the last three weeks without any explanation. That this is not being talked about is a sign of the kneejerk opportunism among sections of the Nigerian intellectual. PDP might not have given us the best, Buhari is hardly what we need now. Nigerians are aware of this, mercifully
From all the available calculations, permutations and indications, Buhari will win this election. Lets take a look at the geo-political Zones, except something sinister happens, Buhari will win in these States.
North West Zone
1. Sokoto
2. Zamfara
3. Kebbi
4. Kaduna
5. Kano
6. Katsina
7. Jigawa
North East Zone
1. Borno
2. Adamawa
3. Bauchi
4. Yobe
5. Gombe
North Central
1. Niger
2. Kwara
3. Taraba
4. Kogi
South West
1. Lagos
2. Oyo
3. Ogun
4. Osun
South South
1. Rivers
2. Edo
South East
1. Imo
FCT – Abuja
Buhari will also get reasonable amount of votes from the following States
1. Anambra
2. Plateau
The first job of any government is to protect the people, their property, and their right to live. Jonathan has not demonstrated the ability to do this at all. He has amassed a fortune for himself and his cronies while criminals slaughter entire families and villages and the military complains that there are no guns. Jonathans government has lost all of its legitimacy. It functions only for itself ….not for the welfare of the people. It must therefore END….immediately, if not sooner.
I would vote for the General only and only if he would arrest all those corrupt people who have been holding back the progress of our country. Beginning from the old/new governors to power sector obstructionists. Imprison or behead all of them and cleanse our country. We need rulers who have love for COUNTRY first.
This article is close to the situation in the Country but it has a biase towards one party as against another as personified by Buhari and Jonathan.
My stand is that President Jonathan might be seen as week because of the way he has steered the ship of the nation in the last six years but one thing is clear, he is educated and has improved our road,rail and educational infrastructure despite fighting Terrorism that was instigated by Buhari,s tribes men (Ofcourse Shekau the leader of Bokoharam is Kanuri) to make the Country ungovernable as Buhari, Atiku and Adamu Ciroma treatened in 2011. Buhari on the other hand might have been seen as a tough and no nonsense General but that is actually a falacy as history has shown. Buhari is daft and weak and so deligates a lot without the capacity to supervice. This was the reason why in 1983-5 when he was head of state, Tunde Idiagbon was the one running all the show and the strenght behind the government to an extent that when IBB wanted to topple that Govt. he had to wait for Idiagbon to visit Mecca for that years HAJJ knowing that Buhari as a weak man will be arrested without shooting a bullet and so was it. Again when in the ninetees when Sanni Abacha made him the head of Petroleum Trust Fund, he also deligated the responsibility to small reckless and corrupt boys in the name of AFROCONSOTIUM because of lack of capacity to lead. They messed up everything but out of respect Abacha spared him. These were when he was young and yet could not perform, not to talk of now that he is old and obviously not in the right shape to withstand the rigors associated with the office of the president. Even an attempt to fight corruption by Buhari is just wishful thinking because he will be expected to start from Tinubu, Amaechi and all those PDP governors that defected to APC who have used the tax payers money to fund his campaign. So my honest submission is that Buhari if voted into power will be worse than Jonathan, infact anybody that passes through the Nigerian electoral process to become the President cannot do much because his hands will be tied even if he is a Pope or an Imam. Gerry Rawlings treatment is the answer to Nigerias probems.
How soon NIgerians forget!. After the country had given them everything, they ……I mean Retired NIgerian Generals who ruled the country via COUPS. Cannot see the wisdom in retiring quietly. American past Presidents, like Carter and Clinton are busy doing GOOD all over the world, but in Nigeria, Obasanjo cannot restrain himself, he builds and pulls down without logical criteria, his many schemes have mostly turned against him, and all the confusion in the politics thanks to this man. Abiola was not good enough for this man, even after winning A HISTORICAL LANDSLIDE victory in the best elections ever held in Nigeria. His brother Generals founded a party for him and offered him the presidency, Still baba wanted a 3RD term. The man cannot get enough of himself.
I was of age when Buhari/Idiagbon sacked a democratically elected President, It was horrible, Months of unpaid salaries, Detentions without trial……Prof. Ambrose ALLI of Edo State died from the brutalities of the Buhari Administration, General Buhari thinks we have all forgotten. How many times and in how many parties will this man try to be president? After 3 defeats this General thinks He Was Born to rule NIgeria.
Thank God that the NIgerian Army is getting the weapons and training needed to defeat Boko Haram. We will have an election and Nigerians will choose.
If Buhari will win and fight corruption, that will be good, but I am afraid, he would not because party members are corrupt ones in Nigeria. They will not allow him to do all these things he promised he will do. A token says “a known enemy is better than unknown one”. If I can turn to be ebola disease, I will go after those bad politicians in Nigeria. Anyway majority in Goodlock Jonathan’s administration are full of corrupt individuals, but he always kept quiet. He should act as the head of state and commander in chief of the arm forces of Nigeria. School leavers, graduates have no jobs, workers are not paid monthly salaries and majority of retired people come to work in order to help or steal. Finally, I would not or support Buhari to win or be the president of Nigeria. From what I have heard and what he Buhari have said, when lost last, was that he will make president Goodlock Jonathan presidency hard therefore, in this respect, it seems, he is the founder with his gangs of boko haram.
Unfortunately some posters did not read the article before jumping to conclusions. Nigerian’s are blind to what is wrong with that country. Most people only talk about corruption at the top, but it is the daily corruption issues that makes it unbearable.
How many of you still in Nigeria will accept rule of law in everything you do. Meaning:
You run red light, you get a ticket to pay the fine. No more giving the policeman bribe to let you go.
No more giving bribes at toll roads, just because it’s cheaper.
If the government document cost 1,000 Naira, that is exactly what you pay and wait your turn.
No more bribing the clerks at government offices, just because you want your papers quickly.
While the people at the top are rotten to the core, majority of the citizens participate in all the corruption issues. Love of country is left for the fools to talk about.
Yes, I left Nigeria at least three decades ago and probably will be among the so called ruling class if I had stayed.
Most Nigerian’s are not even cognizance of the fact that so called BOKO HARAM was created and supported by foreign powers, to accomplish other objectives. You probably would not believe me, if I told you how wicked so called “Onyinbo man” can be when he wants what you have.
Your current election is between two evils, one a former draconian dictator, and the other a weak pretentious university lecturer. One knows about order and killings through the barrel of the gun. The other pretends to talk about order, and his killings are done through the powers of “black magic”.
The corrupt people behind Buhari are not stupid, for they know the man must be put on a leash. If he wins, nothing will change just the looters of the Nigerian wealth.
Jonathan will win, not because he is more qualified, but because people behind him fear Buhari. It will not matter anyway, as the western countries are busy planning how to dominate the next century. The ruling class are so stupid, only if they knew their days are numbered.
Despite all the stolen wealth, death will eventually come calling. So go ahead and vote, but just remember Jonathan will win again because he gave more to the “black and evil forces” more than Buhari was willing to part with. Those with “true open” eyes can see what is going on.
The writer of this aticle is nothing but the best have ever read about Nigeria, If truely Nigeria is a democratic country, the voice of the people is the voice of God. As it is today Buhari has won this election landslide.
This is a nice article that needs to be read by all Nigerians who has the welfare of the country at heart.Jonathan was,is and will be a mess for another 4years.How can the first citizen of a country publicly say that he under estimated (Boko Haram).If you cannot guarantee the safety of your citizens in any form against hoodlums.cannot reign in corruption,lawlessness,nepotism etc,then you are done.Jonathan should not have even contested in this forthcoming election because he has brought shame to the entire Nation of Nigeria.
Jonathan,if you are power hungry please clear the way for Buhari and let us see the changes he had for this beloved nation of ours,while you watch from the sideline and learn how to govern the most populous country in Africa.Buhari on the other hand might not be the best man but for now,the country need a change and that change is now or never.If Idiagbon was alive,he would have been choosen as the Vice presidential candidate to Buhari so that they would be able to continue from where they stopped the last time and that is cleaning up the society of undisciplined,corrupt(419ers),despotic and daft Nigerians.Nigerians should wake up and exercise their civic duty to effect that CHANGE.
It is unbelievable that some people are still of the opinion that PDP should continue running the affairs of this country after 16 years of misrule. I strongly believe that,those who are benefiting individually from PDP are the ones calling for the retention of a bad govt.even now that we have the opportunity of making a change.
Only sentiment and ethnic bigotry can make any person to wish for the continuity of the Jonathan administration,as we speak,because of administrative stupidity,Chadian soldiers are today in Nigerian territory shooting guns all because a man who has no dignity is governing Nigeria,must Nigeria be made to face these forms of indignity because we want someone from Niger delta to govern? Naira is today exchanging above 200 to the dollar,electricity generation is below what it was when Jonathan came in and this is despite the administration having received more money than any other in history of Nigeria yet the $62 billion forex reserves has been depleted such that the president requested for approval for loan of $1 billion to combat Boko Haram,that was the point when it should have become clear to Nigerians that this man has destroyed Nigeria.President Jonathan is a curse on Nigeria and he should never have become a mayor not to talk of state governor but that is Nigeria where competence is irrelevant. General Buhari represents hope and confidence in Nigeria’s ability to rise above the pettiness that has characterised the Jonathan administration.I wish the general well and hope that his administration will live upto the expectations of the well meaning Nigerians who support him.
Ejiro (Abdul) you hit the nail on the head, The fear of GMB is the beginning of wisdom for the now jittery PDP
Your article is pro-Buhari even though it seems to be backed by pictures. Buhari has a cult following not because he is not corrupt but because of SHARIA, the desire of the North to regain power and the security situation in the North. And that cult followership is restricted to the NORTH. Jonathan has done well in the face of the security challenges. I think he deserves and will get re-elected. A man who plunged Nigeria into 16 years of military rule is hardly CHANGE to me. Goodbye Buhari.
one worthy point to note is that Nigeria is greater than any one else and not worth dying for but worth living for. I pray we lift up our eyes to see the secrete evil out to destroy this great nation Nigeria then we will all rise up to pray, fight and defend this Nation in truth, sincerity and integrity of heart. my worries is not the election per say but after the election. the unemployed youth, infrastructure, quality education and better life for her citizens. Vote wisely for God Almighty will shocked the enemies of this great Nation…
Hi Ejiro,
Nicely written. I have read your article and also the comments from different individuals, i must say i do agree with Raymond and i also think few of the comments made were from biased and oversentimental minds. This govt has not offered me anything. A friend of mine did say we have a choice of choosing between the devil and the deep sea, am sure he is right, but then again i do have to make a choice. Only GOD can help solve this mess we all have created by ourselves, everyone is guilty. God has given us everything but only few greedy thievies are enjoying it all. I am tired of failed promises, All i can say is that i need a CHANGE and am seriously praying for one. It doesnt have to either be GEJ or GMB that must rule this country, It is not only PDP and APC that is contesting for presidency someone else can rule. But then again, will he/she be allowed to get there. it all depends on You and I to reflect on this seriously!
The only way General Buhari can win the elections is through the use of the new Permanent Voters’ cards and Card Readers. Tis is because the INEC chairman Professor Jega who is from Kano in the same North-West zone as General Buhari has manipulated those tools to favour his kins man. Consider the skewed distribution of the PVcs without which one can not vote: the Northern states are said to have collected 75% of their PVCs while only 43% of voters in the south have collected theirs. This is despite the fact that Southern Nigeria is more educated and sophisticated than Northern Nigeria. 80% of voters in Kano state, where Professor Jega comes from, have collected their voters’ cards compared with 60% in Lagos. Consequently Kano has 2 million prospective voters than Lagos. In the North-west, where Boko Haram insurgency has scattered the population, 82% of the voters are said to have collected their voters’ cards compared with 43% in the South-west that has remained peaceful. Apart from the skewed PVC distribution, the Card Readers have been configured to disenfranchise voters in the South of Nigeria while allowing multiple voting in Northern Nigeria where the PVCs have been stockpiled with village heads and community leaders. Once these tools are removed, General Buhari and APC will lose woefully.