Divide and rule: The problem with the DRC’s electoral system
Under the current rules (changed months before the last elections in 2011), the DRC’s next president could come to power with just 5.3% of the vote.
After a two-year delay, the DRC votes in elections on 23 December. Credit: USAID/A. Luyoyo.
When voters in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) finally go to the polls on 23 December, it looks like they will be faced with a choice of at least 19 presidential candidates. This crowded race is too close to call, but whoever emerges victorious will be tasked with governing a vast and diverse nation of around 80 million people.
They will need to be the president not just of those who voted for them, but also of those that didn’t. This is a challenge for any elected leader, but in the DRC’s case, this latter group could consist of the vast majority of the population.
Under DRC’s electoral rules, the president is elected in a single round, making it one of the few African countries where executive presidents are popularly elected through the plurality system. Under this arrangement, whoever garners the most votes wins, even if they are far short of a majority. That means that with 19 candidates currently on the ballot, DRC’s next president could – in theory – be elected with just 5.3% of the vote.
Such a breakdown is, of course, highly unlikely. In the 2011 elections, President Joseph Kabila won with 49%. In 2018, several candidates are already polling in the double-figures. Yet unless things change, it is still likely that the DRC’s next president will come to office in a fragile and divided nation with a majority of his compatriots – perhaps a large majority – having voted for someone else.
Who’s running?
With President Joseph Kabila ineligible to run again, the ruling coalition this December will be represented by Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary. The former interior minister is not particularly popular domestically and is under European Union sanctions for his alleged role in human rights violations. On the ballot, he will joined by various other Kabila officials bidding for the presidency, including Minister Tryphon Kin-Kiey Mulumba.
Among the opposition, candidates include Felix Tshisekedi, son of the veteran opposition leader Etienne, and Vital Kamerhe, a former Kabila ally turned opponent. A number of other opposition hopefuls look like they will not be running. Jean-Pierre Bemba, a former vice-president and warlord, was barred from running by the electoral commission though is appealing the decision. Meanwhile, Moise Katumbi, the former governor of Katanga and another prominent opposition figure, was prevented from entering the country to submit his application in time.
For several years, there has been talk of the opposition uniting around a joint candidate. This could lead to a situation in which there is effectively a two-horse race between the ruling party and the opposition. This would mean that the winner would need a majority, or at least close to one, to win. But this is by no means guaranteed. Similar attempts to field a single challenger have failed in the past, while an early coalition could unravel as election day approaches.
With Kabila out of the race and the unpopular Shadary running in his place, opposition candidates may also be emboldened now to go it alone. According to a recent poll taken before candidacies were submitted, the main opposition nominees polled higher than those from the ruling party. Shadary was not even included in the survey. This could reduce the perceived need for opposition figures to join forces, ensuring the vote is split several ways.
A flawed system
The DRC’s next president will face enormous challenges across the issues of security, politics and the economy. They will need all the support they can muster, yet the one round system makes it likely that the new leader will be someone for whom that the majority of Congolese never voted. This could undermine the new president’s legitimacy and effectiveness.
To avoid this eventuality, the two-round run-off system could be reinstated. In fact, it was only abolished in 2011, just months ahead of that year’s elections. To make this amendment without a referendum, the two legislative houses of the DRC would have to vote in favour of the change by a three-fifths majority.
Up to now, there has been little talk of a constitutional revision and it would crucially require the ruling coalition’s buy-in. Yet such a change could benefit the ruling party the most given Shadary’s low popularity. It seems highly unlikely the establishment candidate could win in the first round, but he could more feasibly build a coalition to win a run-off.
For the good of whoever becomes the DRC’s next president, it is also in the opposition’s interests – especially if it trusts its popularity – to back such a reform. Meanwhile, the regional and international community would similarly benefit from the DRC having a more stable and equitable electoral system.
Some may be concerned that a constitutional reform at this time could open up the opportunity for Kabila to abolish term limits, a possibility that many feared previously. But the deadline for candidates to submit their applications has long gone. And if Kabila could have changed the constitution in this way, he probably would have done so already.
There are of course many other concerns with these upcoming elections. The ruling party has a huge stake in maintaining power and has a record of overseeing widespread alleged electoral malpractices. It will take huge domestic and international efforts to ensure the process is not just peaceful but free, fair and credible.
However, it is also crucial to start examining what will happen after the results. It is true that a two-round system would incur greater financial and logistical costs. But it is surely a price worth paying to ensure that when the fragile DRC finally gets a new president, they will have as much credibility and legitimacy as possible.
DRCongo political publics are at present in status acute fragile suggesting these forthcoming December 2018 National Elections may be most combustive if the electoral process is not conducted in a manner method professional ethical under CENI aegis as CENI is the DRCongo Election Management Body—EMB.
Unfortunately, this incumbent CENI Leadership appears to be exhibiting a tendency to conform to the civic civil social electoral ‘diktat’ suggested by the DRCongo Governing Oligarchy who are most reluctant to vacate the privileges of power.
This imposed ‘diktat’ by the DRCongo Governing Oligarchy has resulted in CENI mandating use of voting machines as the method of vote recording.
DRCongo peoples are extremely concerned and nervous in allowing voting machines to be used in vote enumeration as these voting machines are susceptible to technical compromise resulting in possible vote rigging.
Furthermore, due to the harsh field environment the voting machines may fail to operate as designed resulting in yet another delay in National Elections.
The peoples of DRC are pleading for a National Election professional in matters logistical technical and ethical in management leadership ensuring the vote is an absolute reflection of each DRCongo Citizen’s express desire in choice without any malfeasance.
The peoples of DRCongo would much rather prefer making use of hard copy paper ballots as the vehicle/method of vote choice.
More than 30 pro-democracy activists have been arrested in the Democratic Republic of Congo after holding a protest against the planned use of controversial new voting machines in the presidential election, which is due in December. The activists from the organization, Lucha, were also calling for a review of voters’ lists. The Congolese police said they had released some of the demonstrators. There are also reports of arrests at similar protests in the cities of Goma, Lubumbashi and in Kasai Province. Correspondents say there is increased tension in the country, especially after the authorities barred two prominent opposition politicians from running. A prominent leader of Lucha, Luc Nkulula, died in a mysterious fire in June.
“Plusieurs activistes arrêtés en RDC”
En République démocratique du Congo, plusieurs dizaines d’activistes du mouvement citoyen Lucha ont été arrêtés ce matin. Les activistes manifestaient pour exiger le retrait des machines à voter et le nettoyage du fichier électoral mais ils ont été interpellés par les forces de l’ordre. Une trentaine de manifestants essaient de se rassembler devant le siège de la commission électorale à 10 h (9 h GMT). Ils portaient des banderoles disant non à la machine à voter et dénonçant un fichier électoral qui d’après eux, contiendrait des électeurs fictifs. A peine arrivés sur place, la police les arrête.
CENI facilitated DRCongo National Elections for December 23/18 unlikely within ethos Professional Credible
“African leaders have tried many different ways to evade term limits in recent years. Usually these take a form of reinterpreting when an incumbent’s first term started. Or they orchestrate a referendum or constitutional amendment bypassing the term limit restriction. The approach taken by the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Joseph Kabila is particularly straightforward – and brazen. Kabila is simply avoiding holding elections for his successor altogether”.
Monte McMurchy
Begin forwarded message:
From: Monte McMurchy
Date: July 9, 2018 4:56:53 PM EDT
To: SRSG Zerrougui, Achim Steiner, SGCentral, David Gressly, Jean-Pierre Lacroix
Cc: Craig Jenness
Subject: DRC CENI being an EMB Electoral Management Body lacking in ethos professional fiduciary
CENI is the EMB charged with sole responsibility in facilitating National Elections in DRCongo to be concluded by December 2018. CENI as an institution is failing to provide the DRC peoples an electoral process inclusive of electoral procedure grounded in strict professionalism as this CENI Leadership Cadre are beholden to the Kabila Executive Governing Authority in being instructed by this Kabila Governing Authority to frustrate the civic civil social electoral process inclusive of procedure resulting in National Elections being delayed and or inspiring a DRC National Election roiled in turmoil attributed to the use of voting machines designed to founder in frustrating the peoples choice due to technical matters. Monte McMurchy
Hon. Nikki Haley
United States Ambassador to the United Nations
Greetings Ambassador Haley,
National Elections in DRCongo scheduled for December 23, 2018 under CENI aegis will not be implemented in taking place in a manner credible, professional, or ethical in electoral public administrative process inclusive of procedure.
At best, December 23, 2018 National Elections under CENI aegis will be ‘potemkin’ in farce form, ensuring fierce, significant DRC citizen concerns resulting in push back, attesting in grieving to CENI lacking civic civil social electoral credibility.
CENI Leadership lacking in ethical professional electoral credibility I believe will be creating in DRCongo, an environment amenable to citizen civic civil social unrest extruding the possibility of violence ‘extremis’, resulting in the imposition upon the DRCongo Nation, ‘de facto’ martial law imposed by the most grievous illegitimate ruler, Joseph Kabila, who along with his Cadre are most extremely reluctant to relinquish their perquisites in power privilege.
To wit:
CENI imposed voting machines designed to be rigged/hacked are failing in field performance.
CENI conducted voter registration is rife in errors with deletions along with ghost added electors creating a Registry not grounded in a measure of accuracy meaning significant DRCongo citizens are being denied their right to vote.
CENI election logistics, crucial in assuring materials being deployed on time are being subjected to delays attributed to incompetence and perhaps graft, meaning insufficient time is available in order to facilitate a credible December 2018 vote.
CENI designed trainings to educate Election Polling Officers staffing the polling station are trainings not providing sufficient precision in the ‘how/what/when/why’; critical in meeting the electoral dialectic in dialogue efficiencies paramount in assuring the DRC peoples a positive polling experience.
These concerns I have shared with my “Development Election” colleagues at Harvard, Oxford and Birmingham University, and the reply has been ordinal in similarity—–‘Monte you are correct in your analysis’.
You have been warned as DRCongo is in imminent peril attributed solely to the actions intent by the National Executive Leadership in DRCongo.
I remain sincerely,
Monte McMurchy
Gentlemen,
You better know properly the French language to undestand the Congolese Laws and most of all to think twice before writing this kind of rubish about the DRC or any African State, before preaching your African and Congo pessimism. Many of you are excepting violences, civil-ethnic (!) wars in the DRC, will be desapointed. Nihil novum sub sole! Franck Talk II.
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