Eritrea’s “state of uncertainty”: Senior government sources reveal…nothing
Insiders say President Isaias is now ruling largely unilaterally, keeping the public, military leaders, and even ministers out of the loop.
The lack of information about President Isaias’ plans as Eritrea undergoes a period a change is making many nervous. Credit: Sailing Nomad.
Eritrea’s life-president Isaias Afwerki could hardly have had a busier 2018. This year, he has signed an historic peace deal with Ethiopia. He has built close relations with the UAE and Saudi Arabia. He has re-emerged as a man of paramount importance in regional politics, and he has had UN sanctions lifted on Eritrea.
Who knows what 2019 will bring?
That is not a rhetorical question. Isaias has long overseen a closed political system, but this year, its secrecy has reached new heights. While the president used to maintain close relations with his subordinates as a way of control, he is now making momentous decisions almost single-handedly. He is governing without informing, let alone consulting, his colleagues.
When Isaias made the dramatic announcement on 20 June that Eritrea would send a delegation to Ethiopia to discuss peace after 20 years of hostilities, for example, most ministers were hearing the news for the first time, according to inside sources. The first time the cabinet met to discuss relations with Ethiopia was on 28 September, almost three months after the 9 July peace deal had already been signed.
The president has been similarly tight-lipped with the Eritrean people. It was only on 3 November that Isaias sat down for his first interview on the topic. But in the 80-minute monologue-cum-lecture with state media, he talked only about regional dynamics. It was advertised that he would address domestic issues in a second part, but Eritreans are still waiting for that instalment. In the meantime, Isaias has returned to Ethiopia to meet with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed for a seventh time and signed another mysterious deal, this time joined by Somalia’s president.
“A state of uncertainty”
Inside sources in the Eritrean government, who have asked to remain anonymous for their security, describe a situation in which officials and ministers have very little idea of the president’s plans and actions.
“We are all in a state of uncertainty,” said one senior official. “Obviously, a love affair [between Isaias and Abiy], now turning into a romantic series, is being played way above us. Everyone complains. No one knows what to do.”
Another well-placed individual told African Arguments: “Most ministers are avoiding contact even with their staff in fear of being asked to share their opinions that would eventually reveal their ignorance.”
This opacity could explain why ministers have seemed unable to answer questions posed by international journalists. When Information Minister Yemane G. Meskel was asked by Reuters about rumours that indefinite national service was to be abolished, for example, he could neither confirm nor deny it. Minister for Labour and Human Welfare Luul Gebreab was similarly vague and unforthcoming when cornered on the same subject by a Bloomberg journalist.
According to figures in government, Isaias has also marginalised his top military commanders. For the last two decades, the president forged close links with these army leaders, allowing them to engage in reckless corruption to buy their loyalty. But sources suggest that he has side-lined these commanders and now passes orders straight to middle-ranking officers.
Insiders familiar with the situation say that, at the moment, Isaias spends most days in his office in Adi-Halo, on the outskirts of the capital Asmara. There, they say, only four people are permitted to visit him: Yemane Ghebreab, the political affairs head of the ruling People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ); Osman Saleh, Minister of Foreign Affairs; Yemane G. Meskel, Minister of Information; and Hagos “Kisha” Ghebrehiwet, the PFDJ’s economic affairs head and the president’s confidante.
They are reportedly summoned not for discussions, but to relay messages and oversee the government’s daily operations.
[Eritrea: History aside, what will peace mean for my loved ones?]
Speculation fills the gap
In this vacuum of information, speculation and fear has filled the gap in this tumultuous time of change for Eritrea.
One particular area of concern surrounds the country’s future relations with Ethiopia. Since the start of the speedy rapprochement, certain comments by Isaias, Foreign Minister Osman and others have made some Eritreans nervous. In particular, rhetoric of Ethiopians and Eritreans being “one people”, the rapid warming of relations, and the fact that the border demarcation has been all but been forgotten have led some to fear that some kind of confederation between the two countries is in the offing.
This theory was given further weight in November when the ruling PFDJ distributed a list of “Essential Readings” (ኣገደስቲ ጽሑፋት). Among the compiled articles was one by Dawit W. Giorgis, a former governor under the Derg, the regime that ruled brutally over both Ethiopia and Eritrea before the latter gained independence.
In the piece, Dawit, who turned on the Derg, describes meeting Isaias during the armed struggle. He says he told the then rebel leader to take over all of Ethiopia to which, he claims, Isaias responded: “You can be certain Mr. Dawit, that if and when we get our independence, our priority will be to unite the people under some sort of federal arrangement.”
Another issue that has prompted interpretation is Isaias’ relationship with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a constituent party in Ethiopia’s ruling coalition. The president has a historical personal animosity with the TPLF, , which was the most powerful party in Ethiopia before Abiy became Prime Minister in April 2018, and has framed the party as a threat to the region’s stability. Other Eritrean officials have followed his lead in calling for the old guards from the TPLF to be cleared out.
Isaias even reportedly banned Eritrea’s most famous singer, Helen Meles, from touring and playing shows after she performed in Mekele, the capital of Tigray Region, this November. The president is understood to have been so displeased by her gesture that he thought it right to punish a singer who has long helped praised on him in her songs. Sham Keleab, the head of Asser Band and Meles’ partner, was also reportedly stripped of his leadership role.
Isaias’ vocal targeting of the TPLF has even got to the point that one of the party’s founders, Abay Tsehaye, recently pleaded openly with him to forgive and forget.
“More afraid now”
For many outside Eritrea, President Isaias’ decision to pursue peace with Ethiopia this year has sparked widespread hope. But for those in the country, little has changed. In fact, for some, the fast-paced high-level changes, the even greater centralisation of decision-making in the presidency, and the near-total lack of information have made people more concerned than ever.
According to one man who recently crossed into Ethiopia, people in Eritrea are “more afraid now than they used to be before the peace”.
The GAME IS OVER HE PREsident has surprised you and still he will fuzzle your dim brain out of your skull, waffling the camel is marching the rabid dogs are incessantly barking mad!!!
Abrahalei i thought your PEN was dry. Game over bro.
WEDI NAKFA
This time the camel is marching towards Addis Ababa which I think will benefit our Eritrean peope.
indeed the game over ploy was not for weyane, after all, it was for Eritreans. Isayas waited for so long to execute his deep down plan according to his vision; he does not believe on borders as he had lamented in 1993 on the floor of Addis Abeba’s parliament. his comments was that first, we set economic integration then when the people Eritrea do not realize it we complete it with political one. this was more or less his vision for Eritrea and Ethiopia and even for the whole of East Africa. now the question is do the Eritreans want integration? have they been consulted? and the answer to that is no and no…therefore, Isayas does want to impose his personal vision on people of Eritrea assuming they do not count and they have no capacity to decide.
If truly Isayas meant “the game over is for Eritreans ” then he is responsible for the death of thousands and thousands of Eritreas and Ethiopians which fall down in the bloody war between Eritrea and Ethiopia.
A criminal would think it to be a safer place to hide amongst his likes, and in numerically populated places. Then, Ethiopia and Somalia are a better gamble.
Abrihaley , that name you dont deserve to have it. Our president and people of Eritrea did not condemn our sister singer, Helen Meles. Dont try to biuld a crack between our singers and leaders. Keep your dirty politics in Tigray.THE GAME IS OVER
agame qimalam the game is over, agame as minority sit and lok from the far corner. your say is worthless
Abrahimo, well said; I love your analysis! keep it up friend. PFDJ leaders do not want the people of Eritrea to get information about the so called peace agreement with Ethiopia. I think Isasais is trying to create confusion and uncertainty in the horn of Africa so he can escape from been accountable of his horrendous crime.
“Essential Readings” (ኣገደስቲ ጽሑፋት).
“Essential Readings” (ኣገደስቲ ጽሑፋት).?
essential readings = ዓይነተይና ንባብ (pl. ንባባት) (አንበበ)
Nothing new here.
Those who are verse in Eritrean liberation history know that Isaias has never delegated important political decisions to anyone. He always made sure to keep everyone in the dark of the whole picture. Go back and read all EPLF and ELF meetings, peace negotitions with Derg in foreign countries, he would take some delegates with him in one trip and take others on the next one. The most painful part is most Eritreans don’t want to ask on the content of the “treaties” he is signing, for that matter they don’t even think as citizens they have the right to know. It is one thing to trust someone when everything is going smooth, but in a situation like ours where the nations is bleeding its youth, thousands are languishing in prisons without anyone knowing their whereabouts or legal represenation, the normal way of life has been turned upside down, you would think citizens would question the system or even revolt agains it!
What is the African proverb – “When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers”. His animosity with TFLF and greed for power left most Eritreans to vote with their feet, leaving a barren land. And now just when Eritreans started seeing light at the end of the tunnel, he starts a new (mis)adventure of causing havoc in Ethiopia. His dividents will soon be more prisons and less colleges in Ethiopia as well.
Every misery our people are experiencing and every dark cloud hanging over our nation, it all happened under his watch. One can only hope that one day, the Eritrean people will learn and practice the fact that a government severes them, not the other way round.
In the so called Peace treaty between Eritrea and its former colonizer ( Ethiopia ). What do the families of the Dead say : any one caring about their grievances to what cause their loved ones perished . who Is responsible ?
Any compensation for them ?
Eritreans are played by isayas. Welcome to mama Ethiopia. Thank you all PFDJ and YPFDJ for supporting our hero isayas.
We are one and I hope he will be our prime minister soon.
For me the article is false. Without any doubt, behind it, directly or indirectly, there is the Eritrean dictator and it seems clear that the right-wing website, Aigaforum.com is involved for its economic interests. All this for true Abyssinians it is not a breaking news.
The true Abyssinians try to correct everything, even a word, like the following, which distorts their values.
“Essential Readings” (ኣገደስቲ ጽሑፋት). X
The correct translation of the phrase “essential readings” into Tigrinya is
ዓይነተይና ንባብ (pl. ንባባት)
e.g. essential element ዓይነተይና አለመንት
East Africa economic integration is the direction since the region experiences conflicts & crises including droughts & poverty ……
Potential market & trade @ East Africa people:
Somalia 21 M
Ethiopia 93 M
Eritrea 7 M
Djabouti 1,3 Million.
Kenya 55M ✔
Uganda 43M✔
Sudan 41M
South Sudan 12M
—————————————–
Total 230 million or more people consumers @ East Africa that’s what needs to milk for betterment of all. Somalia is thinking how to milk its camels sooner is better…..
Many People forget that the Eritrean people chose to be independent from the Ethiopian colony. Though EPLF (Eritrean People Liberation Front) under the leadership of President Isaias realized the seemingly difficult task of liberating the country, we should not forget that the people of Eritrea’s referendum made that liberation legitimate. Therefore, in my opinion without the consent of the people, even President Isaias (even if he wanted, although I don’t believe that argument) can’t force the country to join Ethiopia.
Tzere Abraham have no moral to speak about Eritrean ,he have been send out side for Education with Eritrean tax payers ,without even thanking those people he finish his expensive school ,soon after instead of coming back to share his knowledge he choose to ask asylum abroad ,since he never stop to attacking his feeder ,like it say the dog mold the hand that feed him ,whatever he rid no one give a shit ,it s a great blessing that it s like stay out never come back to Eritrea ,nature select the weak and tough in time of great challenge ,Eritrea stood its ground with the tough that stayed at the very challenging time ,
the weak like Abraham can go sold his soul to the west ,as they used it now they are changing their mind on Eritrea but for him they found him worth nothing
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