Will the rebellion in Amhara unravel the Ethiopian state?
Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed is grappling with a new rebellion in Amhara, simmering conflicts in several regions and a major economic crisis. His response? To take careful aim at his old pal, Isaias Afwerki.
Graphic courtesy: Zephania Alemu
The Amhara are not only the second largest ethnic group in Ethiopia comprising about 28 % (30 million) of the population; but their historical, cultural, religious, political, and economic significance makes them an integral part of the Ethiopian socio-political fabric. They occupy an important fertile geographical region; and for historical reasons, they are spread out more widely around the country than any other ethnic group. They have played a dominant role in the development of the country. Up to 1991 when the Derg fell and for some time after, they were overrepresented in the educational sector, civil service and the military at the national level and within state structures. Firearms have been in widespread use since the 16th century; militancy has long been a sine qua non of politics and ambition in the Amhara region. As such – and unlike the Tigray war and the insurgency in Oromia – the conflict in Amhara could have devastating consequences in unravelling the country.
Abiy’s main support base
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s drew the bulk of his support from the Amhara during his first years in office. During the Tigray war, Abiy mobilized their intellectual, military, religious, artistic, linguistic, and economic resources, coupled with a vibrant media in the diaspora. Responding to a call by Abiy, militias were trained and organised with the Amhara state special forces. For many Amhara intellectuals, Abiy Ahmed was a messianic figure sent to dismantle their bitter enemy, the TPLF. The Amhara hoped to regain territory they believe was unjustly seized from them during the 27-year TPLF-dominated EPRDF rule. Amhara militias were also used in the war against the Oromo Liberation Front, aggravating the potential conflict between the two most populous regions. Both the Amhara and the Eritrean regime that supports them felt betrayed by Abiy, after Abiy signed a peace agreement with the TPLF in November 2022 and started disarming the Amhara forces. Both Amhara and Eritrea want the TPLF finished off. The Amhara militia are determined not to give up the regions – called Wolkait-Tegede by Amhara and western Tigray by the Tigrayans – they had retaken during the Tigray war. If the TPLF regains that region, it will gain access to Sudan, a scenario which the Eritreans regard as threatening.
The Eritrean connection
The involvement of the Eritrean regime in the Amhara region conflict echoes wider regional tensions. Eritrea’s Isaias Afwerki allegedly backs the Amhara with training and arms, according to internal military sources. Welations between Eritrea and Ethiopia rapidly deteriorating, Abiy’s jingoism on the issue of Ethiopia’s right to a seaport may well lead to open warfare.
Abiy recently told Ethiopia’s parliament that the country has legitimate rights to the Red Sea. The Eritrean government gave a muted response. The antagonistic rhetoric between the Eritrean and Ethiopian regimes has been on the rise in the past two years. Behind closed doors, Abiy is alleged to have said that he will crush the Eritrean regime and bring back not only the Port of Assab but the whole of Eritrea into Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s chief of staff is reported to have said, “We need to designate Eritrea as an enemy.” An Eritrean Facebook page associated with Eritrea’s intelligence has stated that Abiy is leading a government that is on the verge of collapse, with a weak army that is unable to fight the FANO militants, and a country that is eating itself like a cancer. Getachew Reda, one of the leaders of the TPLF had predicted in 2021 that Abiy’s next war will be with Eritrea. The Amhara conflict could likely result in a new war between the two countries, with destructive consequences for the whole region.
Within the context of the Sudan conflict, Isaias is openly supporting the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by Al Burhan over the Rapid Support Forces (SAF) led by Hemedti. He invited 41 representatives from the Democratic Bloc of the Forces of Freedom and Change, a splinter faction that supports Al Burhan, in mid-September, to witness the signing of the Asmara Declaration.
Close relations with Sudan’s army give Isaias leverage in assisting the Amhara, even through Sudan’s border. Abiy is supported by the UAE and according to informed sources, he supports the RSF.
Genuine grievances
Fighting in the Amhara region is the culmination of grievances dating back to 1991. The Amhara have genuine grievances against the state. Hundreds of Amhara have been killed, injured, and displaced, mostly in Oromia and Benishangul Gumuz Regional State, since Abiy took power. Since the military confrontation between the Amhara militia (Fano) erupted in April this year, hundreds of Amhara have been arrested indiscriminately including National and regional MPs for suspicion that they support the militants. Even before the clashes, Amhara had been banned from entering Addis Ababa. Amhara regard the Oromo as their major competitor for power and resources, replacing the TPLF, and view the current conflict as a confrontation with an Oromo-dominated state, even though the regime practises widespread repression in Oromia and suffers general hostility among Oromo.
From its inception, the Amhara have been wary of ethnic federalism, weakening their political, economic, and cultural hegemony, as they are treated like second-class citizens in non-Amhara regional states. Since the promulgation of the 1995 federal constitution that codified ethnic federalism, the Amhara have struggled to come to terms with their loss of historical privileges. Ironically it was Walelegn Mekonen, an Amhara, university student leader, who was among the first to write about nations and nationalities in Ethiopia, The Amhara feel they lost many privileges after 1991.
A region at war with itself
Ethiopia PM, Abiy Ahmed Ali at a military passing-out parade in August 2023. Eritrean intelligence considers his army “too weak…to fight the FANO militants”. Photo courtesy: Abiy Ahmed Ali.
Since Abiy assumed power in 2018, the Amhara region stands out from all other regional states as the only one in which several high-ranking officials were killed, including a president, an Amhara PP chief, a security chief, police commissioners, at least four Bureau chiefs, several district administrators, and several junior officials. If the conflict continues, those killings may target senior national officials. The killings continue unabated.
The region is also accused of orchestrating a coup against its government. The region has had six presidents in five years; Abiy frequently reshuffles them, deploying those he does not trust to federal institutions outside Amhara, replacing them with loyalists. Many Amhara see this as a deliberate strategy to prevent strong Amhara leadership capable of addressing people’s needs and challenging the Oromo regional Prosperity Party.
Economic consequences
The previous civil war in Tigray and the bordering states cost the country $28.7bn. The Amhara region is also a popular tourist attraction area and accounts for 22% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The losses incurred due to the recent conflict in the region is estimated at 2.5 billion birr ($ 45 million). Flower, vegetable, and fruit cultivation and marketing were the most hard-hit investments. In the fiscal year just ended, the regional government invested 464 million birr ($ 8,4 million) in revitalizing defunct industries. Those investments may be at risk. Amhara region is also one of the major breadbaskets of the country. It produces 39% of the stable crop, Teff. With WFP suspension of food aid in the country due to food diversion, and with people dying of hunger in Tigray and other areas, the conflict will further jeopardize food security.
The Fano
The Fano, the Amhara militia fighting the government are no match for the Ethiopian army. They lack a central command structure, and are poorly armed, even though Eritrea supports and trains them. They committed crimes against humanity in Tigray. However, they are popular in the region. Some Amhara may not see them as their representative, but all are unified in their grievances against the state. The Fano have withdrawn from the big cities they occupied, not through fighting but by defection of their supporters in the regional government, early in the fighting. However, clashes continue in the outskirts of towns and countryside and regularly ambush federal troops.
Urgent need for peace
The region has a high number of firearms, and a culture and history of militancy, and is suitable for guerilla warfare. With Amarigna the country’s lingua franca, prominent artists promoting the Amhara cause, Amhara federal officials leaking state secrets, a well-organised diaspora financing the rebellion, , and Eritrea’s alleged involvement, PM Abiy is confronted with a formidable new enemy. It is also unclear how long the large number of Amhara army officials and soldiers in the ENDF, the national army, will continue to kill their kinsmen. Added to these threats, the risk of escalating Amhara-Oromo tensions gives the conflict a major destabilising effect on the Ethiopian state. It does not help that the Abiy government is struggling to manage an economic polycrisis: the losses incurred from the Tigray war, the the lingering undertow of COVID and the global economic recession. There is an urgent need to resolve this conflict peacefully. As the Forum for Social Studies in Ethiopia presented three possible scenarios for the country, the worst being the disintegration of the country into separate units. It is not beyond the realm of possibility.
This is definitely a distorted presentation of the Amharas. This ‘research’ greatly lacks inference to what has been happening on the ground. From the size of the Amhara people to the historical role they played, a misrepresentation abounds in this article. While the Amhara people fight for their legitimate equality rights, the article pushes the claim as if they wanted to keep their historical lordship over other ethnic groups. That is categorically false and misleading. Ignoring the horrible war crimes the TPLF committed against the Amhara people during the war and, the ethnic cleansing and dispossession from their historical lands, the article claims Amharas through their militia had committed crimes against the Tigray people. This unsubstantiated report surves no purpose other than tainting the name of the Amhara people as well as making future relations with brotherly neighbours toxic. The report that Eritrea has been helping Amhara Fano is also a blatant fabrication. This presentation, claimed as if it consisted facts, is nothing more than a rumor clamored by the enemies of Amhara, especially those of the government who, obviously is doing a terrible job in ‘defending territories’ from the insurgency.
The Amhara people have been persecuted since 1991. This is an open secret and they have risen to defend their rights. It might take sometime, but victory will surely come. The Amhara people defended the Ethiopian nation from colonizers and held Ethiopia together for as long as history remembers. They have the wisdom and the experience to free themselves from tyranny. You may take it as a prophesy, the Amharas will surely prevail.
Yes this article miss represent amahar and we amahar more than 60 million population. Ww should prvial. True will will. Abiy ahmed must go ! Abiy ahmed is a genocider ! Abiy ahmed stop killing innocent amahar people to decrease the population. Eritrean nothing to do with this. 60 million Amahar is fano. Fano victory
It is a garbage and misrepresentation of facts and stand against what is happening on the ground. Probably it was written by a pro-TPLF digital Woyane activist. Tplf and blinded supporters never learn from their mistakes and will continue so. Sad
Fano designated as terrotist group by Majlis when they massacered their own tribe in Gonder because of faith.
Eth population in 1970’s was 24 million. Amahara 7 million, Somali 5 m., Tigrai 3 m., Oromo 11 million, etc.
How come now Amhara is 30 million and Somali only 7 milion only?
A lot of garbage talk filled with misleading info.
We Amharas’ know what is happening on ground by the terriorist Abiy Ahmed regimes, eventhough you tried to falsify the truth we suffer today. Lobiests who rewarded last week are not for what they contributed to their country rather for their role to influnce with such rubbish statments. Good boy ¡¡¡
This is the most stupid writer you can come across. He just pulled his “facts” from his ass.
This article is very informative and timely on what is going in Ethiopia currently specifically in Amhara Region.
Thank you for sharing
This is pure garbage. The writer contradicts himself. Flrst he writes that the Amharas have genuine grievances and they are even prohibited from entering the capital city. He further writes that they are treated as second citizens and that even Amhara MP:s and regional city council members are thrown behind bars but still he wants his reades to believe that the Amhara people are fighting to “bring back the hegemony they once had”. What a joke. ! The writer knows that the Amharas are fighting for their survival but he still wants the readers to believe that they are fighting for hegemony. Pure bullshit. The Amhara people are fighting to preserve the Amhara nation from being annhilated. Nothing more nothing less.
All we want is peace in Africa and around the world. Fighting among ourselves will not help, the younger generation. Amhara is part of Ethiopia, one nation and we are still fighting among ourselves. Senseless war without nothing to gain. STOP THE FIGHT FOR GOD SAKE PLEASE.
Lots of garbage and Misleading information there.
You should be ashamed to call yourself a researcher. I think you probably are one of these TPLF sponsored so called researcher, Doctor, professor…etc who bought their titles from western universities
Jebha , you are distorting everything , so you are literally war-mongering and you finalized your Jebha like analysis with a call to calm the nerves . One Eritrea is supporting SAF and Ethiopia RSF . you are literally calling the whole nations just as a typical jebha would . it looks like you your article is a bad omen than a warning and constructive advice . It looks like you wrote this in many ways , in support of TPLF and in the destruction of Eritrea and Ethiopia as Jebha’s would.
It is written by pro TPLF and anti-Amhara so called writer. The article is totally basless in portrying Amhara people starting from the number. Amhara is not 28 million nor the accusation that the Fano has committed crimes against humanity in Tigiray. The article criticall suffers from lack of evidence and fully based on personal anecdotes.
I have found two major flaws:
1) Amhara’s population Number.The writer has understated by 30 million
2) why Amhara’s people are fighting . The writer again misrepresent the real cause.Amhara’s people have been marginalised for long years and these people had hopped meaningful change when Abiy came to power.But all their supports and efforts to sustain his power go down to the toilet. To put insult to injury,Amhara’s people have been directly targeted, killed and displaced in millions from Oromia regions.In addition, Amhara’s people are openly mocked by Government’s top authorities,all of them are belong to Oromo ethic groups.
The situation in Ethiopia is almost like the conflict between Israel and Palestine.
The Amharas are being like Palestine and rest of Ethiopia are bing like Israel.
Amhara wants their superiority back and don’t want to recognize others existence (Palestinians view of Israel) the rest of Ethiopians want to coexist as equals and recognize Amharas for their contributions for the nation but Amharas don’t want to be told what to do hence they want their superiority back.
I think it’s hard pill to swallow for Amharas but they have to accept the new reality about Ethiopia. Ethiopia can only move forward with better governance, it can’t go backward to history.
If Amharas come up with different kind of leadership and most importantly accept diverse interests of all tribes they might have chance ruling Ethiopia again.
This article summarizes the current Ethiopian conflict very well with a good historical overview of the Amharas role in Ethiopia as well. Shared.
An article lacking a knowledge, the truth at the ground, Fano struggle is based on margilization that took place the past decades under the minority tplf administration, where the Amharas had been denied their basic rights, the atrocities that were taken against their existence as an ethnic. They are well organized than the federal army! The current weak ptime minister had tried to dismantle fano to carry out what the US had instructed him, so that the tplf could get life and come back as strong opponents.
As the report narrated, Eritrea had no any role to arm Fano and carry out war, infact the only country strongly fought to preserve Ethiopia’s unity more than any other even the government Ethiopia is Eritrea, Eritrea would never have any agenda to distabilize its neighbouts, unlike the present and previous Ethiopian regimes. The article lacks all the necessary clues .
False Narrative about #Amhara
Oh ma man who really did present an outstanding fiction?
Who ever wrote this misleading article should be fired immediately from his brain cell for being an idiot like him who thinks he’s intelligent enough and informative.
This article is not written based on knowledge or studying the situation closely, but I think he wrote what he over heard at the cafe conversation. Plus he doesn’t have a clue of Ethiopian history. For the sake of truth please remove this article off this page. It’s ridiculous, nonsense and full of lies.
Fano don’t need Eritrean help. They’re capable to fight for their freedom.
Eritrea not involved in this situation.
So, it’s false accusations. Please do your research with evidence first before you posting such serious issues.
Dear ethnic groups dream well…the Amhara do not want to waste another 100 years to enfold all sorts of pagan nomads, filthy racists, oromo goons, inferiority-complex dullards and the like. We have our own written language and a strong workforce. What the oromuma wants now is to weaken and kill Amhara – that is why abiy wants only the Fano to disarm, not the fully-armed oromo goos and the tplf. He wants another 100 years of oromo rule in Ethiopia…No, we don;t want power, we want equality and until we have it, we will pursue this goal even if it takes another generation…sleep well, ethnics
“from the mouth of tplf’
The Article, as most of have mentioned, full of fabricated lies and is reminiscent of bar talk.
And to Waka Wakaa, consider seeing a specialist you sicko.
The Amhara/Amara have almost nothing in common with Palestinians. Rather, like the Israelis they are called the “occupiers”.
There seems to be this idea that because vast majority of Amharas don’t accept Ethiopia now divided among ethnic lines, that signifies their unwillingness to live in equal terms with the rest their countrymen.
The truth though, Amharas don’t think they are superior, nor have said it, unlike Oromo and Tegaru go vernment officials and their supporters that proudly boast they are masters of the land.
While the identity of Amhara’s above all supports a one Ethiopia, where everyone is equally represented no matter their ethnic group- as is the case with any civilized nation.
Among them, it was even taboo to brag about ones own ethnicity because of their disdain for tribalism and loyalty to nationalism.
This thinking has been starting to change, because it has become more clear there exist those, as yourself, that exist harboring and then fueling hatred towards Amharas. These same people continuously the same rhetoric and misconceptions of Amhara people, in order to justify 30 years of attack and genocide against them. The Amara have been obliged to stand on guard and defend themselves.
A garbage analysis and full of fake information. Amhara’s has been displaced, killed, detained in hundreds thousands with this ethical system for the last 3 decades. The guy try to belittle it by saying in hundreds. What a shame! This is the main reason for the fight.
Why give this platform for this nonsense? This is pure is Isaayas propagandist, and arm struggle comrade
This article is here to mislead the wider audience and the writer has deliberately twisted facts on the ground and incorrectly addressed the Amhara cause triggering the conflict.
Fact matters, i advice the followers to refer other sources for a factual and comprehensive coverage of the conflict in Amhara region of
I hope you will revise your article and come with a better one based on facts.
ዐማራ ከአሁን በኋላ ሌሎችን ለማሳሳት የራስህን የበሬ ወለደ ታሪክ አትጽፍም። ዛሬ በ21ኛው ክ/ዘመን ታሪክ እውቀት ሰዎች ይፅፉልሀል ስለ ማን እና አማራ የሚፈልገውን እውነታ። የእኔ ምክር nefetyna ደንቦች በሚሊዮን ዓመታት ውስጥ ተመልሶ አይመጣም. ” የናንተ ፋኖ ሲፎክር የነበረውን አስታውስ ” ጋላ መቼም አይገዛንም ኢትዮጵያ ውስጥ የጋላ ቋንቋ አንፈልግም አማራ ኦርቶዶክስ ኢትዮጵያን መግዛት አለባት አንድ ቋንቋ አንድ ባንዲራ አንድ ሀይማኖት ” ነው እናንተ የምትፎክሩት lol እመኑኝ ለዘላለም ኦሮሞ ይገዛሃል. Don’t dream to lead Oromo people or Ethiopia again, this is 21st century generation…you cannot fool them as you fooled our grandparents . Ahmara stop false accusation of a crimes, stop your bragging, stop being critical, judgmental and come out of your own bubbly zone and learn all Ethiopian Ethnic groups cultures, accept differences and live your life with peace otherwise leave us alone and live in your regional State. And also stop killing your own people and blame on Oromo to get attentions, and to distroye OLF reputation, example the human rights knew that Ahamar killed Ahamar in Wellega and accused OLF, Use your common sense before accusing OLF. International Criminal Court
Constitution requires evidence…Anything you may have heard is not evidence and ” Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence” okay
Qushiti
Amharas are empirialists people and if they get power, they will oppress because they have brought under their control, especially by conquest rest of ethiopia
they’re invaders who had subjugated most of the native population of the land. Somalia and Eritrea have successfully resisted
The information presented in this article is highly misleading and lacks factual basis. This article fails to provide any credible evidence to support its claims.It’s disappointing to see the spread of misinformation in articles .
Unreasonable, know noting about Ethiopia’s political situation. Do you know Amhara is the only nation which didn’t represented by the 1995 Ethiopian constitution?
do you know in EPRDF state formation nationas which have apopulation of less than 20,000 have self adminstration in Amhara state but 10 millions Amhara which live in Oromia didn’t have any?
what is your tangible reason to say Fano is being supported by Eritria. Have you heared about the genocide which is commited in oromia by oromo prosperity on Amharas? FANO has million reasons to fight and purge Abiy
It is a distorted Bad article.
Amhara’s are Fighting For Survival.
Nothing More Nothing Less
Amhara population is more than 60 million .the truth will come out soon❗️
#Amhara_revolution ❗️
I think this writer lacks a reality in which lectured by one of TPLF/ OlF members.
A distorted report, the writer is their propagandist. He doesnot know who are amharas and fano
False reports .we Amhara know what to do