Darfur: Sharp Increase in Lethal Violence
May 2010 saw the largest number of recorded violent fatalities in Darfur since the arrival of UNAMID in January 2008. According to the figures compiled by the Joint Mission Analysis Centre (JMAC), there were 491 confirmed fatalities and 108 unconfirmed but very probable fatalities during the month, about five times higher than the average for the last year.
The reason for the increase in violence is fighting between JEM and the Sudan Armed Forces, which accounts for 440 deaths. At the time of the ceasefire agreement signed in N’djamena in February (and subsequently in Doha), JEM was required to relocate inside Darfur and joint Sudanese and Chadian forces began patrolling the border. A large and well-equipped JEM force established itself at Jebel Moon. The ceasefire lasted two months, and after it collapsed, with no additional progress in the Doha talks, the fighting rapidly resumed, alongside GoS efforts to prevent Khalil Ibrahim from returning to the field. Unwilling to fight defensively, JEM preferred to go on the offensive. It was forced out of Jebel Moon and instead dispersed across Darfur and into parts of Kordofan, taking the war to these areas. The largest number of clashes has been in south-east Darfur but JEM has also been active in the vicinity of al Fashir.
Reports indicate that JEM has made alliances, possibly tactical and operational, with the SLA in Jebel Marra and with disgruntled Arab groups.
JEM forces have also been responsible for an upsurge in carjacking, capturing 13 vehicles. Among them were UNAMID supply trucks carrying fuel and other provisions. Cut off from its Chadian supply base, JEM is now resupplying itself from whatever resources it can find in Darfur and Kordofan, and UNAMID supplies are an attractive target.
Even without this, May would have been an above-average month for lethal violence, because of an increase in inter-tribal fighting in West Darfur, which caused 119 fatalities (monthly total for inter-tribal fighting: 126). The previous two months have actually seen even higher levels of inter-tribal violence, including fighting in the Kass-Jebel Marra area between the Missiriya and Nuwaiba Arab tribes. The repercussions of the collapse of the Suq al Mawasir pyramid scheme in al Fashir also have security repercussions, first in that the angry defrauded investors have been mobilizing to make their case to the authorities, and second in that commanders of armed groups had been profiting from the scheme and are now left without that source of easy income.
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Dear Alex,
This data adds to the already exsisting alarm that we might see the situation reverting back to the early days of the conflict if no serious efforts are taken to ensure that the floundering peace talks are revitalized. The current situation could even lead to widening the zone of the conflict to include Kurdufan. I wonder what caused the surge in inter-tribal fighting, do you know?
Thanks,
MO
When Dr Khalil’s forces entered Darfur in February they were strong enough to take the war to the enemy whenever and wherever they chose. Idriss Deby paid a high price to JEM for cutting them off, and knew for sure that JEM could find a home anywhere in Darfur or Kordofan while Khartoum could not afford to use the same tactics as it did in 2003. The regime miscalculated badly by arrogantly assuming that it could find a military solution to the JEM problem. In fact it gave JEM no option but to fight and fighting is exactly what JEM knows how to do better than anyone else. The whole of Darfur will cheer on anyone who can attack the regime and show them for what they really are.
Dear Muhammad,
the inter-tribal fighting in the last three months has been almost entirely a single conflict to the south and west of Jebel Marra between Misiriya and Nuwaiba Rizeigat. Unusually, south Darfur has been quiet. As with most of these conflicts, there are several layers, including land and local administration, but the spark for the conflict seems to have been quite accidental, following on from an incident in which a diya payment was received, and the group that had received the diya entered the marketplace firing in the air in celebration, causing all-round mobilization and a firefight, after which the violence escalated.
The fighting between JEM and the Sudan government is altogether on a different scale with more significant ramifications.
Dear Alex
You stated that JEM is responsible for the upsurge in carjacking capturing 13 vehicles among them some of UNAMID supply trucks.
I will be very interested to see the evidence for such grave accusations which we entirely deny.
JEM shares its supply with Al-Bashir’s forces that leave behind more than enough for our forces.
Dear Tahir,
According to the reports I have received, JEM intercepted vehicles contracted to UNAMID on two occasions in May. On 13 May, at Yassin near Nyala, it is reported that seven commercial trucks carrying fuel and other supplies for UNAMID were intercepted by JEM.
It seems to me that since the breakdown of the ceasefire agreement, JEM and the Sudan Armed Forces are in a state of complete war. It is encouraging that JEM is complying with obligations under the Geneva Conventions to release prisoners of war to the ICRC, and I hope that SAF is also respecting its obligations in this regard.
I would be interested in your assessment of the military, political and diplomatic situation is it exists today, including the prospects for any meaningful resumption of the talks in Doha.