Hail to the Chiefs – By Antony Goldman
When Muhammadu Buhari swept to power in March’s historic elections, it was on a platform that promised change, security and an end to corruption. In the aftermath of his victory, he met quickly with the leaders of neighbouring states and reached out to leaders of the G7, seeking their support and promising new momentum to end the Islamist terror that has gripped many parts of North East Nigeria since 2010.
No part of the country voted more emphatically for Buhari than the North East, where he trounced the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan, by a margin of nine to one. Where Jonathan was seen as a weak, indecisive and remote figure, the North East saw in Buhari a former soldier pained by the scale of the violence and the distortion of the faith from which Boko Haram insurgents claimed inspiration.
Since Buhari’s inauguration on 29 May, more than a thousand civilians have been killed in a wave of suicide bombing and ambushes. In a particularly bloody Ramadan that appeared to suggest some level of co-ordination with allies in Islamic State, attacks have taken place as far south as Jos and in Zaria and Kano, to the west of the core areas of the insurgency.
The setbacks appeared to represent a loss of momentum on the part of the Nigerian armed forces and allies from Chad, Cameroon and Niger, who in a three-month offensive launched in February this year helped recapture many of the towns and villages taken by Boko Haram across Borno and Adamawa states in its lightning campaign in late 2014.
Even supporters of Buhari expressed concern about apparent delays in filling key appointments. There were reports of a dip in morale because of the failure to replace service chiefs and heads of other security agencies. Troops remained in barracks as Boko Haram was reported to be regrouping in the Sambisa forest and other remote parts of the North East.
On 13 July, a week ahead of a visit to the US where security is likely to be a key topic of conversation with President Obama, Buhari announced replacements for the Chief of Defence Staff, the three Service Chiefs, the National Security Adviser and intelligence chief. He said the appointments were on merit, and that he had no personal knowledge of, or a relationship with, any of the new commanders.
The appointments were a careful balancing act: three from the South, three from the North, four members of minority tribes. But the appointments reflect the current operational priorities.
Major-General T.Y. Buratai, the new army chief, has held several operational command positions, and most recently was in Ndjamena co-ordinating with Chad and Cameroon. He is from Borno, the centre of the insurgency, as is Babagana Monguno, retired as Major-General and head of Military Intelligence by Jonathan in 2011, and now the National Security Advisor (NSA).
Privately, the new security commanders are warning of no quick fixes to the situation in the North East, arguing that Boko Haram infiltration of the army and civilian structures is a major unresolved difficulty and that combating terror attacks and the guerilla tactics to which Boko Haram appears to have returned will prove a major challenge.
They are also conscious of the fragility of the Niger Delta, where amnesty payments to former militants are due to stop at the end of the year, and where separatist tendencies in the East, marked by incendiary broadcasts from Radio Biafra, are increasingly strident. There may be pressure to try to extend short-term measures to maintain an uneasy peace in the Delta, in order to concentrate resources more effectively in the North East.
In the longer term, however, Buhari has given the Service Chiefs a mandate to overhaul a military still marked by the corruption and corrosion of integrity that marked its generation in power for much of the period between 1966 and 1999. Part of the process may include a restructuring that returns power of procurement and policy to the Defence Ministry, which under the constitution is more exposed to powers of oversight but has been neglected for a decade and bypassed in favour of the NSA’s office.
Buhari will also be seeking the support of the US and other powers to facilitate the restructuring. They have until now hesitated, amid concerns over corruption and human rights abuses.
Long term planning remains a challenge, and will meet opposition from vested interests – but is likely also to be complicated by the difficult security situation in the North East, and the more general challenge of law and order in many other parts of the country.
Antony Goldman is Director of Promedia Consulting, which specialises in political and security risk in sub-Saharan Africa.
It’s about time someone look into the mess called Nigeria.
I am not sure if the title has much to do with the body of the piece. You were able to capture some of the issues facing the new administration and the problem those issues portend for the nation. However, you failed woefully to articulate why these problems and the way forward or any constructive way to mitigate these re occurring issues that Nigeria face. I will hope that you continue writing and that this piece is an initial stab on the numerous problems that country or should I say this contraption is facing. Let me conclude by saying that we must deal with the amalgamation of Southern and Northern protectorates without the consent of the people . It is the root cause of our problem. I will elaborate on this in the future. Thanks.
Yea the delta should be doable with less long term and the north east is idk I mean some minor development in the west part will be benificial idk how Far East I’d go but keeping a extra yearlings is deffinatly a go
It is not going to be easy to fix Nigeria. President Buhari has the best chance of any man to do the job. Give him time. He needs time because the psyche in Nigeria is grossly fragmented and the pieces are no where to be found.
It is particularly sad for those of us who have spent 30 plus years in the United States because we see what a very progressive country should look like. But then, it never fails. You hear very well educated Nigerians clamoring to return to Nigeria. They want to make a change but very few have the right intent or opportunity to effect worthwhile change.
To tell the truth: I do not see it ever happening in Nigeria. Individual Nigerians may do well making money, most of them stealing it from the country and nothing comes of it. Until a country truly understands, professes and are willing to die for their country, and until Nigerians truly understand the word “Nationalism”, the Nigerian experiment is doomed to fail.
Article is very insightful and thoroughly researched and therefore very informative. Thank you very much.
please let the BIAQFRANS GO NOW . ITS A COMMAND FROM GOD
Buhari you are a joker, if any attempt to enter eastern state you will die. bet me.
and your mistake will take you straight to hell where you will meet your past criminals and soldier.
WHO IS BUHARI????
buhari is a northern military soldier known as hausa buhari was masterminder of Nigeria Biafra war in order to Obliterate the Eastern Nigeria out and replace with hausa. Obj approves this idea with their circles before they attack eastern Nigeria.
please Igbo’s you people do not have say in Nigeria,buhari said, this is not joke I’m a 9 years old born ,my father was from Kaduna,and my mother Igbo ever since my life I love igbo people and culture ,
please do not allow buhari intention to explode in Nigeria less we all will find ourself in hot water,they are planning to invade east with boko haram, Buhari is a bokoharam, they use this strategies to extract money from nigeria saying they are fighting boko haram where’s they are the boko haram.
boko haram is buhari,obasanjo boko haram middle man,atiku,shagari,IBB, remove these men from Nigeria and see what Nigeria becomes in 4 years.
please vote if you want these men removed vote now for Nigeria peace.
Your report echoed the government’s position that the appointments of the new service chiefs were made on merit and fairly distributed across the nation as four persons are from the northern minorities and three persons are from the south. I strongly believe that Nigeria is in the sorry state it is in today because appointments to positions of authority have not been on merit but on ‘quota system’ or ‘Federal Character’ basis. These are systems where persons of northern extraction are appointed to leadership positions because they do not have enough qualified persons in the such positions in the polity. Admissions to institutions of higher learning are also based on this system.
If Buhari and his team say that they are ready to take Nigeria away from these retrogressive policies of over fifty years of our national life, it is all well and good. The government should show her seriousness about this policy change by taking democratic steps, as enshrined in the constitution, to expunge these retrogressive and evil policies off our national life. It will be double standards to employ the ”merit’ policy when it favours a section of the country only to return to the equal representation or quota policy when ‘merit’ does not favour that section of the country.
Buhari just got into office, let’s give him a little time to gather himself. I suspect he is reeling from the discovery that his predecessor left him a broken down country.
This article dealt with the real problems facing the new president. Corruption at levels of government and the Armed Forces sectors have been the albatross pulling back the hands of progress in combatting this dare devil group. Until the Defence sector is purged of corruption and the sympathizers of Boko Haram, there’ s little that could be done. Those financing them need to be exposed and dealt with rootlessly. Right now the whole country is rotten, and things need to be cleaned out completely before any new innovations could be started. The President is saddled with lots of problems, hence the Nigerian people should give him time to sought things out. May the Almighty God/Allah be with President and guide him through so that he could steer the ship of the country to a save and solid groud.