Tanzania: How long can its COVID-19 strategy hold?
With neighbours tightening their borders and internal criticism growing, President Magufuli’s government finds itself increasingly isolated.
Dar es Salaam from above. Credit: Matthias Ripp.
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Before the coronavirus reached Tanzania, things were arguably going according to plan for President John Magufuli. Since taking office in November 2015, he had maintained a firm grip on power and shaped the government in his image.
He won hearts by sacking absent officials on the spot and managed to reincarnate popular notions of ujamaa (Tanzanian socialism) and suspicion of mabeberu (imperialists). These sentiments partly protected him from criticism as he banned opposition activities and as many of his critics were killed, abducted or shot at.
Within the ruling CCM, President Magufuli was elevated to demi-god status, with virtually every positive action branded as his own personal achievement. Among Christian and Muslim leaders, many described him as “God sent” and accompanied him in public appearances. According to the government’s own numbers – which were made illegal to question – the economy appeared to be doing well as the president’s “white elephant” mega-projects took shape.
The COVID-19 pandemic, however, was not part of the plan.
COVID-19 arrives
After Tanzania confirmed its first case in mid-March, Magufuli went silent for about two weeks. When he reappeared at a church, he said the virus cannot survive in the body of Jesus and encouraged worshippers to keep attending religious services.
In subsequent appearances, he announced there were no plans to close the borders. He encouraged Tanzania’s to inhale hot steam to kill the virus. And he questioned whether masks and disinfectant from abroad had been infected. He claimed COVID-19 testing kits were faulty and that they had returned positive results from a goat and a pawpaw.
Since the start of the pandemic, the president has downplayed the threat and refrained from imposing the kinds of lockdown measures being practised in many neighbouring countries.
A cursory glance at Tanzania’s official statistics might suggest this strategy is working. As of 18 May, it had just 509 confirmed cases and 21 deaths. But a closer look reveals the country has only conducted 652 tests. Furthermore, health workers have claimed that despite the figures, hundreds of people have in fact succumbed to the virus, while videos have emerged on social media of mysterious night-time burials.
Pressure from within
It is difficult to say how long Tanzania can maintain this course of action. If the situation continues to deteriorate, the president could start to find himself being pressured from different political angles.
Domestically, Magufuli is unlikely to be troubled by the political opposition, but if reports of deaths keep rising, it is possible that those within his party could start to question his approach. The president does appear to have a firm grip on power within the party for now. Many of his long-time associates chair key wings of the CCM or hold the most influential positions. This faction is believed to be united behind Magufuli.
However, it is not unfeasible that this faith could erode if the death toll, official or unofficial, continues to climb. This will especially be the case the more that the virus threatens those close to members of this group. Three CCM legislators, including Justice Minister Augustine Mahiga, have already died recently of unknown causes. Even the president’s closest allies know that no one is immune from COVID-19 no matter how powerful.
The other faction of the CCM, which is more sceptical of Magufuli and tends to have deeper roots in the party, may already be tiring of the president’s approach.
Pressure from the outside
Another source of pressure on Magufuli could come internationally. Like all countries, Tanzania relies heavily on trade and cooperation with its neighbours. Many of these countries, however, appear worried at Tanzania’s approach.
On 13 May, Zambia closed the Tunduma-Nakonde border with Tanzania after the Zambian district of Nakonde recorded 76 new COVID-19 cases in one day; it has since re-opened with added restrictions. On 16 May, Kenya shut its borders with Tanzania, after many of its new recorded cases were of truck drivers from across the border. Meanwhile, Uganda and Rwanda have both introduced extra precautionary measures for those transporting goods from Tanzania.
President Magufuli was absent from an online summit of East African leaders on 12 May. And even Raila Odinga, Kenya’s opposition leader, has publicly criticised the approach taken by his long-time friend.
Beyond its neighbours, Tanzania’s relationship with other international partners – many of which were already on shaky ground – have been dealt a blow too. The fact that the International Monetary Fund has disbursed over $1.3 billion to Uganda, Kenya and Rwanda to help them address the impact of the pandemic, but not done the same for Tanzania, speaks volumes.
Finally, President Magufuli’s approach could lead to growing divides within the union. In contrast to the mainland, the island of Zanzibar has so far been relatively transparent in its handling of COVID-19. If Zanzibar feels it has to follow Tanzania’s neighbours in imposing tighter border controls from the mainland, this could provide another source of pressure on Magufuli’s current approach.
Through nearly five years in office, the president has consolidated his powerbase and tightened his grip. But COVID-19 was not part of the plan. The pandemic has created new dynamics, and the more the disease – and the response to it – threatens the interests and lives of his allies, supporters and partners, the more President Magufuli could see his grip start to loosen.
This is very one sided analysis. Shem on you and your schooling.
“It is difficult to say …”, “…is unlikely to be…”, “… it is possible that …”, “… does appear to have …”, “… it is not unfeasible that …”, “… may already be tiring …”, “… could lead to growing divides within the union …”
Modern day fortune teller, and prophet of doom.
dar es salaam city as it looked from picture,is very undeveloped,it seems tanzania is lagging in development,if the country big city is like that,the small cities will be bushes.,..
..and how long will your ‘sponsors’ strategy to weaken our president through your ‘fake news’ hold…Sellout!
It will never be; as God is the one Tanzania had been replying to from the beginning, while the other neighbours trusted much on WHO and European propaganda (Jeremiah 17:5) no one who exalted God will perish that’s why medicines from the natural plants within the country have been found that was after the three days nationwide prayer.
The article focusses on negatives& personality critics not positives & what has been achieved in Tanzania . From scientific approach there is logic in following what countries approach or strategies every indiviual differs so countries , the author could broaden his horizon to see what sweden did,
Many of African countries use the number of corona virus to get support from outside . We Tanzanian we dont sell the number to get support from outside. Actually brother Evalist do your work don’t espect to be loved by outsiders by telling lies to our country. We want to assure that our country is safe and our president is strong . Is only you waiting the number of corona virus from Tanzania so that you make your own deal it will never happen. Our neighbour to close their borders it is not un issue for us the time will tell ,because we know for sure they need our country for many things. Tanzania ïs a free country we can decide which way is good for us to fight this Pandemic .
Chahali, keep on dreaming, ex intelligence mavi
Let him do whatever he thinks is better to fight the covd19, for me i see he is right because we have no enough economy to support the lockdown as we gonna die of hunger instead of the pandemic,
I even beaing surprised with the Kenyan lockdown conducted from 06:00 PM to 05:00 AM as if the virus does only spread during the night only.
A thread they won’t like but that is how modern fortune tellers act. Let them say but this is our president’s stand and will never be shakeable in Almight name. Pamoja Mr. Kiomoni
Evarist Chagali, I have been reading your article more often.To my understanding, you seem to subjective and confused with the way you conduct your analysis.
You’re not informed, am not sure if you real understand how Tanzania is handling Convid-19 . And definately you cannot compare the geopolitical setting of Tanzania with where you seem to be hiding my dear. Majority of Tanzanian are confident with the way the government is handling Convid-19 pandemic.
My honest advice, seek another duties to earn a living and leave out this nonsense, since it won’t add any value to you. If you have personal grievences it better you communicate it directly, but don’t hide through this podium
Mr. Chahali we know you hate Magufuli, but don’t let your personal hatred of him cloud your judgement on his policy toward COVID-19. He’s made some exemplary decisions in handling this matter, such as not shutting down the country, but enforcing limited caution. That’s the best thing in these COVID times.
He has been vindicated worldwide as all shut down cities and towns are now realising that COVID is here to stay, and thus no shutdown can help long term, and it will destroy them economically which is much worse than COVID deaths.
Your problem is that you are short sighted not comparing the impact of the lockdown rather playing the tune of those who are against Tanzania.Check that Tanzania knows that there’s no fit for all dress.Condition prevailing in each country are different.So be realistic of narrating exactly what is happening in our neighborhood and abstain from sweeping statement to win applause..A good example is that the funds you are referring are not chocolates being given to the country,those are loans to be repaid.So mind get the real situation of Tanzania as we have capable leadership needing no one to influence or manipulate.We are dancing our own music which is Tanzanian.
I support my president @Magufuli hakuna corona
Truly, Mr. Chahali, you are not well trained. Are you a politician? That’s why you do not think scientifically.
Do think shutting down the cities is the best way of fighting the pandemic?
Try it, you will see yourself and then you are going to write another findings, later on you will join President Magufuli.
Not everything spoken by those you know is right, you must find the truth by youself and not depend on what others argue. Think first before you loose.
No one on the whole world told his people to go for pray that God will save his country except the one your tooking about and may be you have been paid to speak on. Do you know why?
For any who stands on man’s foot, will fall during the journey but whoever walk on God’s steps will froulish.
Tanzania will win. Stay there. Amazed.
Turn your mind to Jesus. You will be healed.
Waaa…Tanzanian you have surprised many on how you’re handling covid 19…nway time wll tell
what strategy has worked where you are? Tanzania stand is clear work and take precautions, would that IMF debit feed hungry people if they stay inside? if so for how long? it appears u have your course ao action for your own pre determined result which will suit best your masters interest not Tanzanians, enjoy your stay in Scotland and we enjoy our stay in Blessed Tanzania
Magufuli might be wrong in certain issues but not this!
Locking down people has been scientifically proven to weaken their immune systems ! hence being counterproductive as far as Covid-19 control measures are concerned !…Has anybody wondered as to how long the virus will stay or rather when vaccines will be available ?Does it mean that countries which went the lockdown way will keep the same measure for 2-3 years ?Corona..being novel as it is,…is far more unpredictable since it is an unknown phenomenon need logic as well as science in equal measures!
Most of these comments are praising a man who will lock anyone up who has a single thing to say against him and his regime. He has refused to stop gatherings at churches and mosques- places where the virus can spread and have an effect on many families across the country. If you are truly religious and believe in God then answer me this: when did the Lord state that we MUST go to a single building to pray? Where did he state that not doing so would make a person less religious? You can pray anywhere, faith is not a building!
The President has fled to his village while he encourages the rest of the country to keep going on with life as usual. We have list neighbours to this virus, and yet the death toll numbers that are provided to the public do NOT reflect this. People are being locked up in classrooms as ‘quarantine’ and left for dead, but you argue that he is making ‘exemplary’ decisions. You are fools to believe that he makes decisions for anything than his own financial gain. He has managed to brainwash Tanzanians into thinking that he is God sent; if so then why has he not provided a cure?! Why doesnt he save us all?! He suggests random remedies that have no proof of success and yet you follow like blind sheep.
This from a Tanzanian currently living in Arusha.
Fake information
I dont ever think if the writter is in Tanzania. I dont eeither think if the writter knows anything about Tanzania and how Tanzanians behaves at this time period due to Covid-19.
I would comment on the described particulars of the writter as political analysist…as thus putting lies down to win his political interests.
As a social media commentator….Making this for fun out of his own self thinking capacity to commentate his fellow minded group
As author and blogger….Yes, perhaps he earns his living by such practices, so he needs to put every little lies he knows that would make him a leaving
As a former…… hahaha that really makes it more funny and a joke to be commented.
We are seeing with our own eyes what is happening around the world..our country did not from the beginning initiated lockdown…but what we are seeing now is that the whole world is coping with the pandemic just the way we are doing….countries like Thailand, Brazil have disregarded the lockdown way back after realizing that the lockdown makes people die even before the Covid-19 which is to do with the body immunity.
Now the Bundesliga is on play soon the EPL, Laliga and Serie A will be back…so what is it that brings questions to our Dear President stand?? It should be remembered that the Covid-19 is not in books and no modern medicine strategy has proven successful in treating the disease so let each sovereign nation deal with the problem the possible useful way to its citizens…..
you try your best to write what you think but let me also advice you bro,, its better to be silence for the things you dont know also you call yourself an intelligence but please find the real meaning of intelligence also you dont have any research and no research no right to say….
also please lets us Tanzanian live our life not somebody life and i assure you that picture its not the Dar es salaam of today maybe 1980 so please be realistic
The same Tanzania had Kinjeketile Ngwale who sprayed water and millet concortion on his warriors and claimed they were immune to German bullets during Majimaji Rebellion.They were killed like flies in hundreds if not thousands in a shirt span of life
This is nonsense i ever seen. Let me start with the question to you, what will we do with lock down? Does lockdown a real measure toward the pandemic? And if yes, why the number of pandemic in USA is keeping up despite lockdown?. The last question, how long will you be a pupet political analylist?.
Tanzania is a free State, we have our own way of handling the pandemic, and our survival and we trust our president. We don’t rely on external decision as long as we have our own soverign State. We are not flag following the direction of wind.
What you can not tell is that, Covid-19 is a trap which Tanzanian President has never fallen a prey. Those boarder closures are the agents of Imperialism who use the pandemic as a trap for tight loan ties and economic sabotage.
We Tanzanians patriotic we will stand with Magufuli for the public interest.
It has been revealed that even the opposition you tell as internal critics are the same in hearts and minds as mabeberu being paid to serve their masters abroad.
Tanzanians unlocked down is criticized despite the fact that People use masks, wash their hands and sanitize regularly, avoiding overcrowding and schools and colleges closed.
Burundi is on political campaigns, no precautions measures are taken but neither beberus nor their agents point a finger to them.
Chahali, its high time now you switch on Your mind and heart and turn to serve the interests of your country.
Ancient grudges breaks to a new mutiny, and it is Covid-19. U have failed so many time to defeat the JPM by your unjustified propaganda, manouvre and innuendos. Now tirelessly, you blood full convinced that holding so hard and manipulative on Covid-19 would give you a new wave to defeat the JPM. It is already gone, the JPM won it in fashion miles ahead. In fact, you and your league will remain perceived as dumbest persons this country has ever produced. In the new English Language vocabulary, you and your Co are suffices to be called the “Prunks” for your inability to see the obvious. The JPM already Won, Tanzanians believe him honestly and follow loyaltly his directives and protocols on Covid-19. You may call us by any name you deem fit but we want to be sure to tell you that we Tanzanias are still religious, we are realists who believe in the Almighty God and his powers and we declined to smoke screened by your evil endeavours that suggesting believing in the God is embraced by a mass ignorance. Dont fool your person by thinking being a former TISS Agent gives you edge of cleverness and intelligent over others, in fact its the God the Almighty that gives clevetness and intelligent to his peoples, unfortunately the God was jelous to gives that to you. Stop soiling your mother country merely by knowing you wont be able to come back due to security constraints.
Poor analysis, poor research with a western driven mind and perspective (modern days western slavery) We destroy all demonic plans and evils against our lovely Tanzania in the mighty name of Jesus Christ Amen.
This is negative negative negative rumours to Tanzania,
Tanzania has self determination, self defence and precaution from COVID19 we don’t depend ideas or measures to be taken from fuck out side countries as other Africa countries do..so please stopp to fool others about Tanzania
Why this picture? always when outsiders present African they present negative. For this Magufuli calling you Mabeberu. This picture does not present Dar es Salam. I know you do this to please your kings but it shame you and your career
Shame upon you guy! This shows how short sighted ur! We Tanzanian we ere strong forever ever. We perish you negative perceptions toward blessed Tanzania in the name of Jesus. God bless our president Magufuli and give him long life.
Stupid article, no analysis done, yet one comes out with this cheap and verticle critics article , I would advice you, to leave us alone and handle this pandemic in our own ways and you together with other culprit for Tanzania on your own ways. Mind you there is no pressure within Tanzania and we ate6 confident we will corona and go above it.
May God bless Tanzania and rest of the world.
Poor research shame on you and your career
The aerial photograph to represent Dar- es -salaam you have posted by itself shows how evil is your attitude towards Tanzania. It indicates you want to potray a negative image of Tanzania. What does it imply you corrupted deep in your mind and behaviour, it also shows you have a hidden agenda, you have ill intentions working to suits your masters for unknown reasons. You are using covid19 to try to justify evil schemes. Stop it you will achieve nothing but end up in ruins
All the comments I read (about half of the total) attack the author personally. None of them show (evidence) where his statement is incorrect. I am in Canada, visit Tanzania often, and I have been interested what people think. What I see is hatred of a journalist who criticize your president. He may be wrong – why don’t you document where and how he is wrong? Otherwise you leave the reader to feel that you are wrong and the authro is right.
Seriously sure some of his measures have not been the best, but still, all the test kits have to be verified. Where this journalist surely is biased in this article this is not a good sign a journalist has to be neutral. If a person happens to stumble on this article trying to get some insight on this matter may leave with a bad idea on what’s really happening. So all there is to say is some of his measures taken were not good but also him not jumping to make decisions and questioning his next step is also a good thing.
I please ask you (the author of the article) to next time try to show both sides of the table so the reader of this article may come to a conclusion on this matter by his/her own judgment, Thank You.
P.S That photo of Dar es Salaam was of its suburbs next time please show a better photo, not one that makes it seem like Dar es Salaam is a small village.
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